Dallas Fed: Texas adds 47,100 jobs in November; state employment forecast declines to 2.5 percent for 2017
For Immediate Release: December 22, 2017
DALLAS—Texas added 47,100 jobs in November, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 59,300 jobs in October. Texas jobs have grown 2.6 percent year to date in 2017 after rising 1.2 percent in 2016. The monthly annualized growth rate was 4.7 percent in November.
Incorporating November leading index and employment data along with an early benchmark downward revision to second quarter job growth , the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.5 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 2.7 percent.
The forecast was slightly lower than the Dallas Fed’s previous estimate primarily due to the downward benchmark revision to growth earlier in the year. Based on the forecast, 305,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2017 will be 12.4 million.
“The jobs rebound in October and November puts state job growth back on track to finish the year strong,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.
“Houston and the Gulf Coast region saw a big pickup in jobs following the declines in September, while Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin picked up strongly. San Antonio, in particular, is experiencing a strong stimulus from post-Harvey rebuilding as local construction companies send crews to the coast. Also, Gulf Coast residents seeking temporary housing have boosted hotel and restaurant demand in San Antonio.”
Adjusting for the temporary spike and subsequent decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Leading Index shows a strong increase over the three months ending in November, rising 1.55 percent. Gains were broad based across most components, with the Texas Stock Index, help-wanted advertising, and the U.S. leading index being the largest positive contributions. Strengthening oil prices over this time also buoyed the index. A mild appreciation in the Texas value of the dollar, which hurts the competitiveness of state exports, was the largest drag on the index.
Unemployment rates rose in five of the nine major Texas metro areas in November, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Rates fell in Brownsville–Harlingen and Laredo, and were flat in the Fort Worth-Arlington and San Antonio–New Braunfels areas.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.
For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
E-mail: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org