Dallas Fed: Texas adds 13,100 jobs in July: State employment forecast declines slightly to 2.7 percent for 2018
For Immediate Release: August 17, 2018
DALLAS—Texas added 13,100 jobs in July, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 27,700 jobs in June. That brings the year-to-date annualized growth rate to 3.2 percent.
Incorporating July employment growth of 1.3 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.7 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.1 to 3.3 percent. Based on the forecast, 337,700 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2018 will be 12.7 million.
The forecast fell slightly from the Bank’s estimate of 3.0 percent growth released last month.
“After growing at a strong pace of 3.7 percent during the first five months of the year, job growth has cooled over the past two months,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.
“Manufacturing employment declined in July after surging in the first half of the year. Also, the reconstruction efforts following Hurricane Harvey may be starting to slow as job growth in Houston has weakened,” Phillips said. “Overall the forecast suggests that 2018 will be a good year for the Texas economy, although the second half will be more subdued than the very strong first half.”
Unemployment rates fell in all nine major Texas metro areas in July, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
E-mail: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org