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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 28,100 Jobs in October; State Employment Forecast at 2.9 for 2018

For Immediate Release: November 16, 2018

DALLAS—Texas added 28,100 jobs in October, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 24,800 jobs in September. That brings the year-to-date annualized growth rate to 2.9 percent.

Incorporating October employment growth of 2.7 percent, an upward revision of job growth in September and a slight decline in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.9 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.5 to 3.3 percent.

Based on the forecast, 353,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2018 will be 12.7 million. The forecast rose from the Bank’s estimate of 2.7 percent growth released last month.

“Despite historically tight labor markets in Texas, jobs continue to grow at a strong pace,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “September job growth was revised up from 1.7 percent to 2.4 percent, resulting in a growth of 2.7 percent since midyear—slightly slower than the 3.1 percent in the first half. Most of the slowing has occurred in the goods-producing sectors of mining, manufacturing and construction, which grew at a very strong pace in first half of 2018. Job growth continues to be broad based across metro areas.”

Unemployment rates fell in seven of the nine major Texas metro areas in October, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Unemployment rates were flat in the Austin-Round Rock and Laredo metro areas.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
Email: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org