Dallas Fed: Texas adds 19,600 in August; state employment forecast decreases to 2.3 percent growth in 2019
For Immediate Release: September 20, 2019
DALLAS—Texas added 19,600 jobs in August, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 31,600 jobs in July. Year-to-date annualized job growth stands at 2.3 percent compared to annual growth of 2.4 percent in 2018.
Incorporating August job growth of 1.8 percent, a downward benchmark revision to first quarter job growth and a slight decrease in the August leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.7 to 2.9 percent.
Based on the forecast, 288,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2019 will be 12.9 million.
“After two consecutive months of strong growth, Texas jobs decelerated in August,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “Overall outlooks from our Texas Business Outlook Surveys were slightly negative in August as business contacts reported heightened trade and political uncertainty.”
“This is consistent with the slight decline in the Texas Leading Index and a slight reduction in the forecast for the remaining months of the year,” Phillips said.
Unemployment rates in seven of the nine major Texas metro areas in August remained unchanged, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. The Dallas Fed also seasonally adjusts Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-5307