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Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast strengthens; 61,300 jobs added in September

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates that jobs will increase 3.3 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.1 to 3.5 percent.   

This is up from the previous month’s forecast of 2.9 percent growth for the year.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

Texas added 61,300 jobs in September, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers.

Texas added an upwardly revised 15,100 jobs in August.

“Texas labor market strength continues to surprise to the upside,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “September’s upturn in employment was led by the goods-producing sector, which includes oil and gas, manufacturing and construction. In the service sector, education and health, professional business services, and trade and transportation recorded strong job growth after losing jobs the previous month. Metropolitan areas, particularly Dallas, San Antonio, Austin and Houston, registered very strong job gains.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

  • The forecast suggests that 453,200 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2023 will be 14.1 million.
  • Texas employment grew an annualized 5.4 percent month over month in September, while August growth was revised up to 1.3 percent.

The unemployment rate decreased in each of Texas’ major metro areas, including Dallas–Plano–Irving, San Antonio–New Braunfels, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Austin–Round Rock, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Laredo, Brownsville–Harlingen and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Texas unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in September, unchanged from August.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on


Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857