Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.

That is down from the 2.0 percent growth forecasted last month.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

“Employment fell in June for the first time in a year, with the state losing 15,500 jobs,” said Jesus Cañas, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “With the slowing, job growth in the first half of 2025 now stands at 1.8 percent, just below its long-term trend of 2.0 percent. June declines were largely broad based across sectors, led by cuts in the oil and gas and professional business services sectors. The only sectors that added jobs last month were information services, education and health, and government. Additionally, employment fell in all major Texas metros except for San Antonio.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:       

• The forecast suggests 244,600 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2025 will be 14.5 million.     
• Texas employment declined by an annualized 1.3 percent in June after a 2.1 percent growth rate in May, which was revised down.

The unemployment rate, which takes into account changes in the total labor force along with other factors, decreased in Austin–Round Rock, Brownsville–Harlingen, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Laredo, San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.         

The Texas statewide unemployment rate decreased to 4.0 percent in June.     

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on DallasFed.org.    

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Media contact:

Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org