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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 14,500 Jobs in November; State Employment Forecast 2.4 for 2018

For Immediate Release: December 21, 2018

DALLAS—Texas added 14,500 jobs in November, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 32,400 jobs in October. That brings the year-to-date annualized growth rate to 2.4 percent.

Incorporating a downward revision to second-quarter job growth, November job growth of 1.4 percent and a decline in the Texas Leading Index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.4 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.2 to 2.6 percent.

Based on the forecast, 293,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2018 will be 12.6 million. The forecast declined from the Bank’s estimate of 2.9 percent growth released last month.

Early benchmark data released in late November revised down Texas job growth from 3.5 percent in the second quarter to 1.9 percent. More recently, job growth slowed in November due mostly to a slowing in the service-producing sectors of leisure and hospitality, health care and financial services,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.

“The recent sharp decline in oil prices and strength in the international value of the dollar means slowing is likely for the energy and manufacturing sectors—which grew at a strong pace for most of this year,” Phillips said.

Unemployment rates were flat in eight of the nine major Texas metro areas in November, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. The unemployment rate rose slightly in the Fort Worth-Arlington metro area.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
Email: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org