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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 27,300 Jobs in April; State Employment Forecast Calls for 2.3 Percent Growth in 2019

For Immediate Release: May 17, 2019

Texas added 27,300 jobs in April, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 26,200 jobs in March. Year-to-date annualized job growth stands at 2.3 percent compared to annual growth of 2.3 percent in 2018.

Incorporating April job growth of 2.6 percent and a third consecutive increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 3.3 percent. ┬áThe forecast is an improvement from March’s 1.8 percent.

Based on the forecast, 294,100 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2019 will be 12.9 million.

“Job growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 2.6 percent instead of 2.4 percent. This small revision, along with continued gains in job growth and leading indicators, has resulted in a further increase in the job forecast for this year,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.

“While the manufacturing and mining sectors will likely slow from very strong growth in 2018, the overall economy is expected to remain quite strong. The current forecast suggests job growth this year will equal that of 2018. Gains likely would be even stronger, however, if it were not for the historically tight labor markets that have left many job openings unfilled,” he said.

Unemployment rates fell in all of the nine major Texas metro areas in April, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. The Dallas Fed also seasonally adjusts Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
Email: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org