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Dallas Fed: Texas adds 26,200 jobs in October; state employment forecast increases to 2.2 percent growth in 2019

For Immediate Release: November 15, 2019

DALLAS—Texas added 26,200 jobs in October, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 11,200 jobs in September. Year-to-date annualized job growth stands at 2.2 percent compared to annual growth of 2.4 percent in 2018.

Incorporating October job growth of 2.5 percent and a slight increase in the October leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.1 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.8 to 2.4 percent.

Based on the forecast, 267,200 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2019 will be 12.9 million

“After weakening since mid-year, Texas job growth accelerated in October,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.  “While mining jobs declined at a steeper pace and manufacturing fell, service sector jobs accelerated, propelled by improvements in retail, health care, leisure and hospitality and local government.” 

“The strength in October job growth is consistent with a recent improvement in the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and solidifies the continued expansion of the state’s economy despite the weakness in the energy sector and recent declines in the Texas Leading Index,” Phillips said.

Unemployment rates in six of the nine major Texas metro areas in October ticked up, while Austin–Round Rock, El Paso and San Antonio–New Braunfels remained unchanged according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. The Dallas Fed also seasonally adjusts Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.


Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748