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Dallas Fed: Texas Employment Forecast Shows Growth Slowing to 1.4 Percent in 2023

February 3, 2023

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 1.4 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.7 to 2.2 percent. This forecast represents a significant slowing from last year’s pace of 3.5 percent.

Despite expectations for weaker growth, last year ended on a robust note. “The state added over 452,000 jobs in 2022, reaching employment of 13.5 million; job gains were broad-based across all sectors,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Strength in 2022 was led by employment increases in energy, leisure and hospitality, and information services.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

  • The forecast suggests that 193,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2023 will be 13.7 million.
  • At the end of last year, Texas employment grew 2.3 percent month over month in December after rising a revised 4.3 percent in November.

Unemployment rates in December decreased in several metros, including Brownsville–Harlingen, El Paso and Houston–The Woodlands–Sugarland, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The rates were unchanged in Austin–Round Rock, Dallas–Plano–Irving, Fort Worth–Arlington, McAllen–Edinburg–Mission and San Antonio–New Braunfels.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate did not increase in any of the major metro areas. The Texas unemployment rate decreased to 3.9 in December.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates may be found on


Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857