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Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast weakens; 33,600 jobs added in March

April 21 2023

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates that jobs will increase 2.4 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.8 to 3.1 percent.

This is down from the previous month’s forecast of 2.8 percent growth for the year.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

Texas added 33,600 jobs in March, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Dallas Fed.

Texas added a downwardly revised 36,200 jobs in February.

“The slower job growth in March and downward revisions to February’s number suggest the labor market may be cooling off after growing at record- high rates for two years,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “The March employment data were notable in that construction and energy employment bounced back, while growth in professional and business services, financial activities and information was notably weaker.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

The forecast suggests that 332,500 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2023 will be 14.1 million.

Texas employment grew 3.0 percent month over month in March after a large downward revision in February to 3.2 percent.

The unemployment rate declined in five of Texas’ major metro areas including: El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Laredo, and San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The rate increased in Brownsville–Harlingen and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission.

It remained flat in Austin–Round Rock and Dallas–Plano–Irving.

The Texas unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0 percent in March.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on


Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857