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Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast strengthens; 33,500 jobs added in July

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates that jobs will increase 3.0 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.6 to 3.4 percent.

This is up from the previous month’s forecast of 2.5 percent growth for the year.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

Texas added 33,500 jobs in July, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers.

Texas added an upwardly revised 28,700 jobs in June.

“Job growth accelerated in July as the labor market remains resilient, with the state adding around 33,500 jobs,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Strength in July was led by robust increases in leisure and hospitality and construction employment, and by gains in manufacturing and education and health. Information services, oil and gas, and professional and business services reported job losses.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:

  • The forecast suggests that 404,100 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2023 will be 14.0 million. 
  • Texas employment grew an annualized 2.9 percent month over month in July, while June growth was revised up to 2.5 percent.

The unemployment rate increased in each of Texas’ major metro areas, including Dallas–Plano–Irving, San Antonio–New Braunfels, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Austin–Round Rock, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Laredo, Brownsville–Harlingen and McAllen–Edinburg–Mission, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Texas unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in July, unchanged from June.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on


Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857