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Research Publications

Economic Letter

As of 2019, Dallas Fed Economics has taken the place of Economic Letter. Issues are available on FRASER, the Federal Reserve's digital library of U.S. economic, financial and banking history.


Volume 13, Number 10
December 2018
Labor Market Not Overly Tight, Demographically Adjusted Measure Shows
Carlos E. Zarazaga and Emil Mihaylov
Abstract: Elevated inflation traditionally accompanies prolonged low unemployment rates, such as those currently observed in the U.S. However, price pressures have remained comparatively restrained, prompting further examination. The labor input utilization rate— the proportion of total hours individuals devote to work—provides insight when demographically adjusted, particularly when accounting for aging baby boomers. The indicator suggests the labor market wasn’t overly tight in second half 2018.

Volume 13, Number 9
December 2018
Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy
J. Scott Davis, Dan Crowley and Michael Morris
Abstract: Emerging economies that borrow in U.S. dollars are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy due to changing exchange rates. However, the marginal effect of this sensitivity is determined by the relative amount of U.S. dollars held in reserve.

Volume 13, Number 8
June 2018
Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve
Pavel Kapinos and Alex Musatov
Abstract: For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening—the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt—lasts about a year and is relatively small. After the first year, the impact on large banks’ profitability becomes positive; for smaller institutions, it stays negative and becomes larger. Recent yield-curve flattening is likely to more strongly affect smaller banks, reducing their profitability.

Volume 13, Number 7
May 2018
Consumers Respond More to Negative News than Positive Info
Antonella Tutino
Abstract: Consumers, forced to navigate a constant stream of economic information, are often challenged to sort through details and respond to new material. Experiments suggest that people react more forcefully to negative income shocks than to positive ones. Size also matters: Reaction to small shocks is slower relative to the response to big shocks.

Volume 13, Number 6
April 2018
Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates Stand Out
Alexander W. Richter, Daniel Chapman and Emil Mihaylov
Abstract: Male and female prime-age labor force participation rates have declined in the U.S. at a faster rate than in most developed countries over the past 20 years, even among people with a college degree. Stark differences in health outcomes, incarceration rates, and labor market, maternity and child-care policies provide potential explanations for the disproportionate participation-rate decline.

Volume 13, Number 5
April 2018
Steeling the U.S. Economy for the Impacts of Tariffs
Michael Sposi and Kelvinder Virdi
Abstract: Proposed steel and aluminum tariffs would likely trim a quarter percent from the U.S. gross domestic product over the long run. U.S. metals industries would likely expand, while heavy industries, such as machines and equipment, would probably contract along with aggregate capital formation. The main risks lie in the potential for retaliation by trading partners and the possibility of a trade war.

Volume 13, Number 4
March 2018
Global, National Business Cycles and Energy Explain Texas Metro Growth
Alexander Chudik, Janet Koech and Mark A. Wynne
Abstract: A mix of global, national and state-specific shocks help drive employment fluctuations between U.S. states. Econometric modeling shows such differences among metropolitan areas also reflect a mix of shocks. Texas cities strongly tied to oil and gas activity appear more affected by energy-sector shocks than other metros in the state.

Volume 13, Number 3
March 2018
Rising Public Debt to GDP Can Harm Economic Growth
Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes, M. Hashem Pesaran and Mehdi Raissi
Abstract: The debt–growth relationship is complex, varying across countries and affected by global factors. While there is no simple universal threshold above which debt to GDP significantly depresses growth, high and rising public debt burdens slow growth in the long term, data from the past four decades indicate.

Volume 13, Number 2
February 2018
Global Interfirm Network Reveals Centrality of U.S. and Financial Sector
Everett Grant and Julieta Yung
Abstract: The global interfirm network indicates the level of integration among firms across industries and regions, which intensified with globalization in recent decades. While there is evidence of direct contagion passing between firms in the network, there are also indications that connectedness plays a role in a reduced likelihood of firm distress and improved performance.

Volume 13, Number 1
January 2018
Texas Job Growth Swings More with Services than Oil
Navi Dhaliwal, Soojin Jo and Mine Yücel
Abstract: As the Texas economy diversified after the 1980s oil bust, the link between overall economic growth and the oil and gas sector weakened. The sector’s connectedness with the state economy increased again with the shale boom. However, service sector employment, especially in financial activities and professional business services, became increasingly prominent following the Great Recession.


Volume 12, Number 15
December 2017
Brexit Through the Gift Shop: No Refunds
Michael Sposi and Kelvinder Virdi
Abstract: The effects of Brexit through higher barriers to trade could cost British households the equivalent of 428 British pounds annually or $580 in 2016 prices. Effects across the rest of the EU would vary, but countries that trade extensively with the United Kingdom, such as Ireland, stand to incur the greatest losses.

Volume 12, Number 14
December 2017
Demand Shocks Fuel Commodity Price Booms and Busts
Martin Stuermer
Abstract: Demand shocks due to rapid industrialization have driven commodity price booms throughout history. As periods of industrialization lose steam and supply catches up, busts follow after about 10 years. A new dataset of price and production levels of 12 commodities provides evidence of this behavior from 1870 to 2013.

Volume 12, Number 13
November 2017
Real-time Data Inaccuracies Pose Challenges to Gauging the Oil Market
Justin J. Lee and Jesse Thompson
Abstract: Initial estimates of global oil market balance, or the implied change in global inventories, are frequently used to identify supply shortages or surpluses. These have important implications for future oil prices. Initial inventory data undergo various revisions, which may contribute to inefficiencies in oil pricing.

Volume 12, Number 12
November 2017
China’s Capital Controls Appear to Arrest Flight, Stabilize Currency
J. Scott Davis
Abstract: China’s yuan and balance of payments appear to have stabilized by early 2017. Controls on capital outflows may have been a key factor that averted a full-blown financial crisis in the country.

Volume 12, Number 11
November 2017
Fed’s Effective Lower Bound Constraint on Monetary Policy Created Uncertainty
Michael Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
Abstract: Uncertainty about the economy increased when the Fed reduced the federal funds rate to its effective lower bound because the constraint restricted the Fed’s ability to stabilize the economy. As a result, a much stronger negative relationship between uncertainty and economic activity emerged during and shortly after the Great Recession.

Volume 12, Number 10
October 2017
Global and National Shocks Explain a Large Share of State Job Growth
Alexander Chudik, Janet Koech and Mark A. Wynne
Abstract: Global and U.S. national shocks on average appear to equally explain more than half of the fluctuations in state employment growth, an important measure of assessing real economic activity. The overall assessment, however, conceals a wide variation among states.

Volume 12, Number 9
August 2017
Getting a Jump on Inflation
Alan Armen and Evan F. Koenig
Abstract: Accurate official estimates of Fed policymakers’ preferred PCE inflation measure take months, and sometimes years, to become available. A small set of timelier indicators offers realtime power to “nowcast” PCE inflation. Those indicators provide as much accuracy as initial government estimates and remain informative even after official estimates have been published.

Volume 12, Number 8
July 2017
Impact of Macroeconomic Surprises Changed After Zero Lower Bound
Christoffer Koch and Julieta Yung
Abstract: Macroeconomic surprises involving employment and inflation—reflecting the Fed’s attempts to achieve its dual mandate to promote full employment and price stability—increased in importance during the zero-lower-bound period. Also, market participants were more attentive to housing market indicators and final GDP revisions.

Volume 12, Number 7
June 2017
Bank Asset Concentration Not Necessarily Cause for Worry
Ricardo T. Fernholz and Christoffer Koch
Abstract: U.S. banking assets have become substantially more concentrated within a few large institutions. However, decreasing relative rates of big-bank growth and of idiosyncratic volatility—an indicator of individual bank susceptibility to shocks and a resulting redistribution of assets—suggest a reduction in systemic financial system risk through contagion.

Volume 12, Number 6
May 2017
Corporate Tax Reform: Potential Gains at a Price to Some
Evan F. Koenig and Jason L. Saving
Abstract: Corporate tax reform has become a high-profile issue amid fears that firms are increasingly taking their headquarters and production facilities offshore and booking profits abroad. Adjustments to the tax system can help address these factors, though not without potentially introducing new issues.

Volume 12, Number 5
April 2017
Costs of Oil Price Exchange-Traded Funds Diminish Usefulness
Sung Je Byun
Abstract: Crude oil exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are investments designed to track oil price changes. They bear unique costs of which many investors are unaware. Since the first crude oil ETF went to market in April 2006, these costs have been sizable, reducing ETF returns by 1.33 percent per month on top of the average monthly loss of 0.23 percent attributable to weak oil prices.

Volume 12, Number 4
March 2017
America’s Missing Workers Are Primarily Middle Educated
Alan Armen and Tyler Atkinson
Abstract: The labor force participation rate has fallen since 2008, partly due to an aging population and despite a more highly educated one. After accounting for aging, those whose highest educational attainment is a high school diploma, some college or an associate degree have primarily driven the participation decrease.

Volume 12, Number 3
February 2017
Small-Business Lending Languishes as Community Banking Weakens
Kelsey Reichow
Abstract: Community banks are key providers of loans to small businesses, which are important contributors to the local economy and international trade. While regulatory burden on small banks and its impact on lending has received attention, it is difficult to isolate the most significant driver of sluggish small-business lending.

Volume 12, Number 2
February 2017
Navigating by the Stars: The Natural Rate as Economic Forecasting Tool
Evan F. Koenig and Alan Armen
Abstract: Fed policymakers must assess the stance of monetary policy each time they decide whether the target federal funds rate should be changed. Several different benchmark, or “natural,” interest rates have been suggested for this purpose. The gap between the target funds rate and the natural rate should, in principle, help forecast real economic activity and inflation.

Volume 12, Number 1
January 2017
Is the Next Recession Around the Corner? Probably Not
Anton Cheremukhin
Abstract: A “profits recession” often predicts a real recession. A view of recessions as gluts of competition explains why this time a real recession is not imminent.


Volume 11, Number 12
October 2016
U.S. Productivity Growth Flowing Downstream
Michael Sposi and Kelvinder Virdi
Abstract: Measurements of U.S. productivity growth have declined, particularly in the high-tech sector. This may reflect increased U.S. specialization in upstream activities in the global supply chain. Those activities tend to experience slower productivity growth.

Volume 11, Number 11
August 2016
Health Care Services Depress Recent PCE Inflation Readings
Jim Dolmas
Abstract: Health care services, which historically helped push core measures of inflation higher, have restrained recent readings. Among them is the personal consumption expenditures price index, favored by Federal Reserve policymakers deliberating interest rate changes.

Volume 11, Number 10
July 2016
Shadow Banking Reemerges, Posing Challenges to Banks and Regulators
Alex Musatov and Michael Perez
Abstract: Shadow banking has come roaring back and in new forms that still manage to escape bank regulation and could pose systemic risks since these activities remain deeply intertwined with traditional banking.

Volume 11, Number 9
July 2016
Risk, Uncertainty Separately Cloud Global Growth Forecasting
Alexander Chudik, Enrique Martínez-García and Valerie Grossman
Abstract: Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty.

Volume 11, Number 8
July 2016
Is Rising Unemployment an Early Warning of State-Level Recession?
Alan Armen and Tyler Atkinson
Abstract: Based on experience with national unemployment, analysts have viewed sharply higher state joblessness as signaling possible further deterioration. However, analyses indicate increasing state-level unemployment by itself does not indicate a recession, and that applying rule-of-thumb properties regarding recession to state economies is misguided.

Volume 11, Number 7
July 2016
Global Demographic Trends Shape Policy Environment
Mark A. Wynne
Abstract: Demographics are key determinants of what is economically feasible at both the global and national levels. Demographics also have important implications for monetary policy. Slower population and labor force growth in the coming decades will have a depressing effect on real interest rates.

Volume 11, Number 6
May 2016
Central Bank Communication Must Overcome the Public’s Limited Attention Span
Antonella Tutino
Abstract: It is critical that central bankers have the ability to communicate their monetary policy goals and intentions involving employment and price stability to the public. The task is complicated in an economy that includes many firms and households in an era of information overload.

Volume 11, Number 5
May 2016
Impact of Chinese Slowdown on U.S. No Longer Negligible
Alexander Chudik, Arthur Hinojosa
bstract: The impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades. Econometric modeling shows that the U.S. economy is more likely to directly and indirectly (through its trading partners) feel the impact of a negative shock to Chinese output.

Volume 11, Number 4
May 2016
Stock Market Provides Imperfect View of Real U.S. Economy
Julieta Yung
Abstract: Monitoring global economic and financial developments is important for assessing labor markets and inflation as well as risks to the economic outlook. The stock market—through measures such as the Standard & Poor’s 500—is often thought to be an economic bellwether. However, market volatility compromises the reliability of such indexes.

Volume 11, Number 3
April 2016
Increased Credit Availability, Rising Asset Prices Help Boost Consumer Spending
John V. Duca, Anthony Murphy, Elizabeth Organ
Abstract: A combination of much less household debt, revived access to consumer credit and recovering asset prices have bolstered U.S. consumer spending. This trend will likely continue despite an estimated 50 percent reduction since the mid-2000s of the housing wealth effect—an important amplifier during the boom years.

Volume 11, Number 2
April 2016
Consequences of the Euro: Monetary Union, Economic Disunion?
Enrique Martínez-García, Valerie Grossman
Abstract: Forming a monetary union brings the benefits of a shared currency but also—as the experience of the euro area shows in the years following the global financial crisis—significant costs associated with the loss of monetary policy independence and exchange rate flexibility.

Volume 11, Number 1
March 2016
Emerging-Market Debtor Nations Likely to Follow Fed Rate Boosts
J. Scott Davis
Abstract: A Federal Reserve interest rate increase can lead to capital flows reversing and exiting emerging markets. Central banks in emerging markets that are highly dependent on outside capital will be tempted to match the Fed increase in an attempt to curb capital flight.


Volume 10, Number 11
December 2015
Cheaper Crude Oil Affects Consumer Prices Unevenly
Alexander Chudik and Janet Koech
Abstract: The recent crude oil price decline is reflected in lower pump prices for gasoline. Other consumer prices are also affected, but the impact and the speed of transmission vary considerably.

Volume 10, Number 10
October 2015
Long View of China Suggests Inevitable Slowdown
Anton Cheremukhin
Abstract: Market reforms account for almost half of China’s growth miracle since 1978. However, the pace of expansion is bound to slow down as China approaches the technological frontier.

Volume 10, Number 9
October 2015
Foreign Direct Investment: Financial Benefits Could Surpass Gains in Technology
Jian Wang, Janet Koech and Xiao Wang
Abstract: Many emerging markets offer financial incentives to attract foreign direct investment, believing that such investment provides advanced technology or management skills. However, it appears developing economies such as China could benefit more from multinational corporations’ financial resources.

Volume 10, Number 8
August 2015
Survey-Based Forecasts Identify Likely Inflation Outcomes
Antonella Tutino
Abstract: Professional forecasters generally better predict inflation than household surveys and often outperform naïve year-ahead forecasts based on the Fed’s 2 percent target. Constants, the basis of the naïve forecasts, benefit because they are not subject to month-to-month volatility.

Volume 10, Number 7
June 2015
A Real Appreciation for Recent Exchange-Rate Movements
Kuhu Parasrampuria and Michael Sposi
Abstract: Recent movements in real exchange rates—a measure of relative prices—in the euro area and Japan are consistent with long-run adjustments toward levels predicted by economic fundamentals.

Volume 10, Number 6
May 2015
Liquidity Mismatch Helps Predict Bank Failure and Distress
J.B. Cooke, Christoffer Koch and Anthony Murphy
Abstract: Liquidity mismatch—the risk of a bank being unable to fund increases in assets or meet its obligations as they come due—increased in the U.S. banking sector during the run-up to the financial crisis, especially at the largest institutions, contributing to bank failure and distress.

Volume 10, Number 5
April 2015
Investment Enhances Emerging Economies' Living Standards
Enrique Martínez-García
Abstract: Investment helps countries at all levels of economic development reap productivity gains from new technologies and improve living standards. Investing to support innovation and a skilled workforce is as crucial for China as it is for the U.S.

Volume 10, Number 4
April 2015
External Debt Sheds Light on Drivers of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
J. Scott Davis
Abstract: During a financial panic, a major driver of exchange rate fluctuations is a country's amount of external debt, or funds borrowed from foreign lenders. However, not all debt has the same impact on rate movements.

Volume 10, Number 3
April 2015
Plunging Oil Prices: A Boost for the U.S. Economy, a Jolt for Texas
Anthony Murphy, Michael Plante and Mine Yücel
Abstract: Economic activity in the U.S. overall will benefit from the oil price collapse. The decline will, however, negatively affect oil-producing states such as Texas and North Dakota.

Volume 10, Number 2
March 2015
International Migration Remains the Last Frontier of Globalization
Mark A. Wynne
Abstract: Allowing greater international migration, though controversial, offers the potential of outsized economic output gains relative to what’s possible with further liberalization of trade or capital flows.

Volume 10, Number 1
January 2015
Current Account Surplus May Damp the Effects of China’s Credit Boom
J. Scott Davis, Adrienne Mack, Wesley Phoa and Anne Vandenabeele
Abstract: In contrast to similar credit expansions in the euro periphery in the 2000s and East Asia in the 1990s, China’s credit boom is far less likely to end in a dramatic bust because it’s financed by domestic savings.


Volume 9, Number 14
December 2014
Consumer Price Differences Persist Among Eight Texas Cities
Michele Ca’Zorzi, Alexander Chudik and Chi-Young Choi
Abstract: The differences in what consumers pay for a given product in eight Texas cities increased considerably in the 2000s—Dallas being by far the most expensive city in the sample. A strong price adjustment mechanism, however, ensures that the relative price between any two Texas locations tended to rapidly revert to its mean value.

Volume 9, Number 13
October 2014
Are We There Yet? Assessing Progress Toward Full Employment and Price Stability
Richard W. Fisher and Evan F. Koenig
Abstract: With help from accommodative monetary policy, there are good reasons to believe that the economy will achieve full employment and price stability fairly soon. That prospect raises challenging issues for Federal Reserve policymakers.

Volume 9, Number 12
October 2014
Fed Manufacturing Surveys Provide Insight into National Economy
Emily Kerr, Pia Orrenius, Jack Wang and Jesús Cañas
Abstract: Regional Federal Reserve Banks' manufacturing surveys provide important insight into national economic conditions. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey performs well forecasting the ISM manufacturing index and U.S. industrial production.

Volume 9, Number 11
September 2014
Deindustrialization Redeploys Workers to Growing Service Sector
Michael Sposi and Valerie Grossman
Abstract: The decline of industrial employment in advanced economies is part of a long-term structural transition. A growing service sector, with an increasing share of jobs, has become key to long-run productivity growth.

Volume 9, Number 10
September 2014
Despite Cautionary Guidance, Leveraged Loans Reach New Highs
Alex Musatov and William Watts
Abstract: Leveraged lending has grown significantly since 2010 as underwriting standards have loosened. Despite regulatory concerns, markets have reached new highs that may hint at a buildup of risk.

Volume 9, Number 9
August 2014
China's Sputtering Housing Boom Poses Broad Economic Challenge
Janet Koech and Jian Wang
Abstract: China’s economic slowdown and changing demographics cloud its housing market’s long-term prospects. While urbanization and a lack of alternative investment opportunities provide short-run support, the housing sector’s difficulties imperil China’s financial sector and the global recovery.

Volume 9, Number 8
August 2014
U.S. Gasoline Imports Rise Following Temporary Easing of Fuel Standards
Adriana Z. Fernández and Robert W. Gilmer

Volume 9, Number 7
July 2014
Crude Oil Export Ban Benefits Some ... but Not All
Michael D. Plante

Volume 9, Number 6
June 2014
Inflation Is Not Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon
Antonella Tutino and Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga

Volume 9, Number 5
May 2014
Middle-Skill Jobs Lost in U.S. Labor Market Polarization
Anton Cheremukhin

Volume 9, Number 4
April 2014
Central Bank Transparency Anchors Inflation Expectations
J. Scott Davis, Adrienne Mack and Mark A. Wynne

Volume 9, Number 3
March 2014
U.S. Budget Deficits Shrink, but Long-Run Issues Remain
Jason Saving

Volume 9, Number 2
March 2014
Renewable Fuel Standards Hit the 'Blend Wall'
Michael D. Plante and Mine Yücel

Volume 9, Number 1
January 2014
Weakly Capitalized Banks Slowed Lending Recovery After Recession
J.B. Cooke and Christoffer Koch


Volume 8, Number 12
December 2013
Volatility-Selling Strategies Carry Potential Systemic Cost
Jiaqi Chen and Michael Tindall

Volume 8, Number 11
December 2013
The Euro and Global Turbulence: Member Countries Gain Stability
Matthieu Bussière, Alexander Chudik and Arnaud Mehl

Volume 8, Number 10
October 2013
Sovereign Wealth Funds Allow Countries to Invest for More Than the Long Term
Alex Musatov and Josh Zorsky

Volume 8, Number 9
October 2013
Asia Recalls 1997 Crisis as Investors Await Fed Tapering
Janet Koech, Helena Shi and Jian Wang

Volume 8, Number 8
September 2013
A Short History of FOMC Communication
Mark A. Wynne

Volume 8, Number 7
September 2013
Assessing the Costs and Consequences of the 2007–09 Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath
David Luttrell, Tyler Atkinson and Harvey Rosenblum

Volume 8, Number 6
July 2013
Economic Shocks Reverberate in World of Interconnected Trade Ties
Matthieu Bussière, Alexander Chudik and Giulia Sestieri

Volume 8, Number 5
July 2013
Value-Added Data Recast the U.S.–China Trade Deficit
Michael Sposi and Janet Koech

Volume 8, Number 4
June 2013
Technological Progress Is Key to Improving World Living Standards
Enrique Martínez-García

Volume 8, Number 3
June 2013
A Balanced-Growth View of Men's and Women's Unbalanced Labor Market Recoveries
Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga

Volume 8, Number 2
April 2013
When Gauging Bank Capital Adequacy, Simplicity Beats Complexity
Michael A. Seamans

Volume 8, Number 1
March 2013
Foreclosures’ Silver Lining: They Could Restrain Rent Inflation
Alex Musatov and Danielle DiMartino Booth


Volume 7, Number 14
December 2012
Falling Off the Fiscal Cliff
Jason Saving

Volume 7, Number 13
December 2012
Inflation Expectations Have Become More Anchored Over Time
J. Scott Davis

Volume 7, Number 12
October 2012
High Unemployment Points to Below-Target (But Still Stable) Inflation
Tyler Atkinson and Evan F. Koenig

Volume 7, Number 11
October 2012
Bringing Banking to the Masses, One Phone at a Time
Janet Koech

Volume 7, Number 10
September 2012
Cost of Decisionmaking Influences Individual Selections
Anton Cheremukhin and Antonella Tutino

Volume 7, Number 9
September 2012
One-Size-Fits-All Monetary Policy: Europe and the U.S.
Mark A. Wynne and Janet Koech

Volume 7, Number 8
August 2012
China's Slowdown May Be Worse Than Official Data Suggest
Janet Koech and Jian Wang

Volume 7, Number 7
August 2012
Market Expectations and Corn Prices: Looking into Future to Explain Present
Michael Plante and Jackson Thies

Volume 7, Number 6
July 2012
Real-Time Historical Dataset Enhances Accuracy of Economic Analyses
Adriana Z. Fernandez, Evan F. Koenig and Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy

Volume 7, Number 5
May 2012
Commodity Futures Investing: Method to the Madness
Michael Plante and Jackson Thies

Volume 7, Number 4
May 2012
Default and Lost Opportunities: A Message from Argentina for Euro-Zone Countries
Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga

Volume 7, Number 3
February 2012
Economic Rebounds in U.S. and Euro Zone: Deceivingly Similar, Strikingly Different
Anthony Landry and Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga

Volume 7, Number 2
February 2012
Global Stock Market Linkages Reduce Potential for Diversification
Karen K. Lewis

Volume 7, Number 1
January 2012
Increased Real House Price Volatility Signals Break from Great Moderation
Adrienne Mack and Enrique Martínez-García


Volume 6, Number 14
December 2011
Relating Commodity Prices to Underlying Inflation: The Role of Expectations
J. Scott Davis

Volume 6, Number 13
November 2011
Financiers of the World, Disunite
Jiaqi Chen and Jeffery W. Gunther

Volume 6, Number 12
November 2011
How the U.S. Tax System Stacks Up Against Other G-7 Economies
Anthony Landry

Volume 6, Number 11
October 2011
Did Speculation Drive Oil Prices? Market Fundamentals Suggest Otherwise
Michael D. Plante and Mine K. Yücel

Volume 6, Number 10
October 2011
Did Speculation Drive Oil Prices? Futures Market Points to Fundamentals
Michael D. Plante and Mine K. Yücel

Volume 6, Number 9
September 2011
The Sluggish Recovery from the Great Recession: Why There Is No 'V' Rebound This Time
Mark A. Wynne

Volume 6, Number 8
August 2011
When Will the U.S. Housing Market Stabilize?
John V. Duca, David Luttrell and Anthony Murphy

Volume 6, Number 7
July 2011
Distance and the Impact of 'Gravity' Help Explain Patterns of International Trade
Ananth Ramanarayanan

Volume 6, Number 6
June 2011
Will China Ever Become as Rich as the U.S.?
Mark A. Wynne

Volume 6, Number 5
May 2011
Upstream Capital Flows: Why Emerging Markets Send Savings to Advanced Economies
Simona E. Cociuba

Volume 6, Number 4
May 2011
Inflation Measurement Gives Us Food for Thought
Jim Dolmas

Volume 6, Number 3
March 2011
'Rational Inattention' Guides Overloaded Brains, Helps Economists Understand Market Behavior
Antonella Tutino

Volume 6, Number 2
March 2011
Federal Health Care Law Promises Coverage for All, But at a Price
Jason Saving

Volume 6, Number 1
January 2011
With Reforms in China, Time May Correct U.S. Current Account Imbalance
Jian Wang


Volume 5, Number 15
December 2010
Expanding Variety of Goods Underscores Battle for Competitive Advantage
Shalah M. Mostashari

Volume 5, Number 14
December 2010
The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market
Danielle DiMartino Booth and David Luttrell

Volume 5, Number 13
December 2010
When Tariff Cuts Don't Boost Import Variety
Shalah M. Mostashari

Volume 5, Number 12
December 2010
Gauging the Odds of a Double-Dip Recession Amid Signals and Slowdowns
Harvey Rosenblum and Tyler Atkinson

Volume 5, Number 11
November 2010
The Globalization of Ideas
Anthony Landry

Volume 5, Number 10
October 2010
Financial Crisis Revives Interest in Special Drawing Rights
Simona E. Cociuba

Volume 5, Number 9
September 2010
Sovereign Debt: A Matter of Willingness, Not Ability, to Pay
Ananth Ramanarayanan

Volume 5, Number 8
August 2010
Can the Nation Stimulate Its Way to Prosperity?
Jason Saving

Volume 5, Number 7
July 2010
Recovering from the Housing and Financial Crisis
John V. Duca and David Luttrell

Volume 5, Number 6
June 2010
Cycle-Resistant Credit Systems: Learning from Hong Kong’s Experience
Ying Guan, Jeffery W. Gunther and Sophia Tsai

Volume 5, Number 5
June 2010
Manning the Gates: Migration Policy in the Great Recession
Mike Nicholson and Pia Orrenius

Volume 5, Number 4
May 2010
The Term Auction Facility’s Effectiveness in the Financial Crisis of 2007–09
Tao Wu

Volume 5, Number 3
April 2010
Regulatory and Monetary Policies Meet ‘Too Big to Fail’
Harvey Rosenblum, Jessica J. Renier and Richard Alm

Volume 5, Number 2
February 2010
Durable Goods and the Collapse of Global Trade
Jian Wang

Volume 5, Number 1
January 2010
A Historical Look at the Labor Market During Recessions
Enrique Martínez-García and Janet Koech


Volume 4, Number 10
December 2009
Labor Market Globalization in the Recession and Beyond
W. Michael Cox, Richard Alm and Justyna Dymerska

Volume 4, Number 9
November 2009
What Drives Diesel Fuel Prices?
Jackson Thies and Stephen P. A. Brown

Volume 4, Number 8
November 2009
Trade, Globalization and the Financial Crisis
Mark A. Wynne and Erasmus K. Kersting

Volume 4, Number 7
September 2009
Fed Policy in the Financial Crisis: Arresting the Adverse Feedback Loop
Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jessica J. Renier

Volume 4, Number 6
August 2009
TALF: Jump-Starting the Securitization Markets
Kenneth J. Robinson

Volume 4, Number 5
July 2009
Has Greater Globalization Made Forecasting Inflation More Difficult?
Mark A. Wynne and Patrick Roy

Volume 4, Number 4
June 2009
Taming the Credit Cycle by Limiting High-Risk Lending
Jeffery W. Gunther

Volume 4, Number 3
April 2009
Seeking Stability: What’s Next for Banking Regulation?
Simona E. Cociuba

Volume 4, Number 2
February/March 2009
Fed Confronts Financial Crisis by Expanding Its Role as Lender of Last Resort
John V. Duca, Danielle DiMartino and Jessica J. Renier

Volume 4, Number 1
January 2009
Ties that Bind: Bilateral Trade's Role in Synchronizing Business Cycles
Ananth Ramanarayanan


Volume 3, Number 12
December 2008
Financial Crisis Casts Shadow Over Commercial Real Estate
Roland Meeks

Volume 3, Number 11
November 2008
Globalization and the Changing Nature of the U.S. Economy’s Influence in the World
Adriana Z. Fernandez and Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy

Volume 3, Number 10
October 2008
Fed Intervention: Managing Moral Hazard in Financial Crises
Harvey Rosenblum, Danielle DiMartino, Jessica J. Renier and Richard Alm

Volume 3, Number 9
September 2008
The Big Mac: A Global-to-Local Look at Pricing
Anthony Landry

Volume 3, Number 8
August 2008
China and India: Two Paths to Economic Power
W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm

Volume 3, Number 7
July 2008
Reaching Mexico's Unbanked
Edward C. Skelton

Volume 3, Number 6
June 2008
Why Are Exchange Rates So Difficult to Predict?
Jian Wang

Volume 3, Number 5
May 2008
Crude Awakening: Behind the Surge in Oil Prices
Stephen P. A. Brown, Raghav Virmani and Richard Alm

Volume 3, Number 4
April 2008
Financial Market Tremors: Causes and Responses
Richard W. Fisher

Volume 3, Number 3
March 2008
Intellectual Property Protection in a Globalizing Era
Edwin Lai

Volume 3, Number 2
February 2008
Accounting For the Bond-Yield Conundrum
Tao Wu

Volume 3, Number 1
January 2008
Inequality and Growth: Challenges to the Old Orthodoxy
Erwan Quintin and Jason L. Saving


Volume 2, Number 12
December 2007
From Complacency to Crisis: Financial Risk Taking in the Early 21st Century
Danielle DiMartino, John V. Duca and Harvey Rosenblum

Volume 2, Number 11
November 2007
The Rise and Fall of Subprime Mortgages
Danielle DiMartino and John V. Duca

Volume 2, Number 10
October 2007
What's Driving Gasoline Prices?
Stephen P. A. Brown and Raghav Virmani

Volume 2, Number 9
September 2007
The 'Great Moderation' in Output and Employment Volatility: An Update
Evan F. Koenig and Nicole Ball

Volume 2, Number 8
August 2007
Hedge Fund Investors More Rational Than Rash
Jeffery W. Gunther and Anna Zhang

Volume 2, Number 7
July 2007
Is Latin America Saying Adios to Market-Friendly Reforms?
William C. Gruben and Richard Alm

Volume 2, Number 6
June 2007
Measuring the Taylor Rule's Performance
Adriana Z. Fernandez and Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy

Volume 2, Number 5
May 2007
Women at Work: A Progress Report
W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm

Volume 2, Number 4
April 2007
Fiscal Fitness: The U.S. Budget Deficit’s Uncertain Prospects
Jason L. Saving

Volume 2, Number 3
March 2007
Obstacles to Measuring Global Output Gaps
Mark A. Wynne and Genevieve R. Solomon

Volume 2, Number 2
February 2007
After the Fall: Globalizing the Remnants of the Communist Bloc
Julia K. Carter

Volume 2, Number 1
January 2007
Does Foreign Direct Investment Help Emerging Economies?
Anil Kumar


Volume 1, Number 12
December 2006
Through a Glass, Darkly: How Data Revisions Complicate Monetary Policy
Evan F. Koenig

Volume 1, Number 11
November 2006
Making Sense of the U.S. Housing Slowdown
John V. Duca

Volume 1, Number 10
October 2006
Laying the Foundation for a Mortgage Industry in Mexico
Edward C. Skelton

Volume 1, Number 9
September 2006
Globalization’s Effect on Interest Rates and the Yield Curve
Tao Wu

Volume 1, Number 8
August 2006
The Looming Challenge of the Alternative Minimum Tax
Alan D. Viard

Volume 1, Number 7
July 2006
How Labor Market Policies Shape Immigrants’ Opportunities
Pia M. Orrenius and Genevieve R. Solomon

Volume 1, Number 6
June 2006
Mexico’s Financial Vulnerability: Then and Now
Erwan Quintin and José Joaquín López

Volume 1, Number 5
May 2006
Integration and Globalization: The European Bellwether
Jason L. Saving

Volume 1, Number 4
April 2006
Running on Empty? How Economic Freedom Affects Oil Supplies
Stephen P. A. Brown and Richard Alm

Volume 1, Number 3
March 2006
Apparel Exports and Education: How Developing Nations Encourage Women’s Schooling
William C. Gruben and Darryl McLeod

Volume 1, Number 2
February 2006
Beyond the Outsourcing Angst: Making America More Productive
Thomas F. Siems

Volume 1, Number 1
January 2006
Miracle to Malaise: What’s Next for Japan?
W. Michael Cox and Jahyeong Koo