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Research and analysis of economic trends and developments

Mariam Yousuf and Robert Leigh

Firms are adopting AI and automation to offset rising tariff costs and shrinking margins, aiming to boost productivity and reduce labor needs amid economic challenges.

Srini Ramaswamy, Hugo De Vere, Matthew McCormick and Seth Searls

In Depth: The Treasury cash-futures basis trade, a very large, leveraged Treasury trade, has drawn scrutiny because unwinding positions amplified stress during the pandemic-era market shock of March 2020. Although the trade has since become more prominent, recent market activity suggest that financial stability concerns have not simultaneously grown.

Pia Orrenius, Grace Ozor, Madeline Zavodny and Xiaoqing Zhou

In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.

Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr

Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance longstanding productivity gains or, alternatively, drastically alter the economy in relatively short order.

Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr

Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?

Laila Assanie, Ethan Dixon and Emily Kerr

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a key tool for identifying U.S. business-cycle shifts, has traditionally aligned with economic data. However, postpandemic, its economic characterizations often appear weaker than what hard data indicated, raising concerns of divergence from official statistics.

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Dallas Fed Economics