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Research and analysis of economic trends and developments

Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr

Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance longstanding productivity gains or, alternatively, drastically alter the economy in relatively short order.

Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr

Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?

Laila Assanie, Ethan Dixon and Emily Kerr

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a key tool for identifying U.S. business-cycle shifts, has traditionally aligned with economic data. However, postpandemic, its economic characterizations often appear weaker than what hard data indicated, raising concerns of divergence from official statistics.

Enrique Martínez García and Michael Sposi

In Depth: U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously.

Prithvi Kalkunte and Mariam Yousuf

The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

This essay examines the trade-offs between different monetary policy implementation methods through the lens of the consolidated government balance sheet and income statement

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Dallas Fed Economics