The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.

While experiencing exceptional economic growth over the past decade, data show that Texas is last or lagging the nation in several key areas.

While the key measures suggest that conditions that hamper a bank’s resilience to economic adversity are marginally higher than before the pandemic in 2019, we expect further declines in bank stress levels as interest rates normalize.