Dallas Fed Economics
Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?
June 03, 2025
Economic Surveys
Special Questions
Results from the Texas Business Outlook Surveys special questions in May show that 60 percent of firms report that they are currently using artificial intelligence, up notably from 38 percent a year ago. For generative AI use specifically, the share rose from 20 percent to 36 percent.
May 27, 2025
Austin
Innovation flourishes in Austin
Austin continues to grow as a place where research and creativity flourish. On a recent trip to the Texas capital, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan visited with people representing various stages of the innovation cycle, from cutting-edge research to developing real-life applications.
May 23, 2025
Working Paper
The Social Returns to Public R&D
Recent empirical evidence by Fieldhouse and Mertens (2024) points to a strong causal link between federal nondefense R&D funding and private-sector productivity growth, and large implied social returns to public R&D investment. This paper shows that these high social return estimates broadly align with existing evidence on the social returns to private or total R&D spending.
May 14, 2025
Working Paper
The Problem of Quality Change in Historical Price Statistics: An Illustrative Example Using Baedeker Travel Guides
This paper uses a novel dataset on the prices of the travel guidebooks published by the German publishing house Baedeker between 1832 and 1944 to construct a hedonic price index for guidebooks. Comparing these indexes to the list prices of these guidebooks, the paper shows that the failure to adjust for improvements in the quality of the guidebooks over time imparts a substantial upward bias to measured inflation.
November 26, 2024
Working Paper
Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?
This paper studies the effects of exposure to structural labor demand shocks during youth and adolescence on human capital accumulation and later-life earnings.
November 09, 2024
Working Paper
Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S.
This paper examines shifts in the U.S. marriage market, assessing how online dating, demographic changes and evolving societal norms influence mate choice and broader sorting trends.
September 23, 2024
Austin
Austin’s ecosystem combines government, education and the tech industry
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's 360° Listening Tour is taking her to communities all around the Eleventh Federal Reserve District. The tour is helping deepen her understanding of the region’s people and economy by adding color and perspective that go beyond official statistics.
July 08, 2024
Southwest Economy
Texas high tech shakes off post-pandemic slump, readies new growth path
Texas is poised to lead in new advanced technologies, notably artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor manufacturing.
May 03, 2024
San Antonio
San Antonio shows resiliency, with cross-border manufacturing and high-tech aspirations
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's 360° Listening Tour is taking her to communities all around the Eleventh Federal Reserve District to deepen her understanding of the region’s people and economy.
February 07, 2024