Research Department Working Papers
The Social Returns to Public R&D
Recent empirical evidence by Fieldhouse and Mertens (2024) points to a strong causal link between federal nondefense R&D funding and private-sector productivity growth, and large implied social returns to public R&D investment. This paper shows that these high social return estimates broadly align with existing evidence on the social returns to private or total R&D spending.
May 14, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
The Problem of Quality Change in Historical Price Statistics: An Illustrative Example Using Baedeker Travel Guides
This paper uses a novel dataset on the prices of the travel guidebooks published by the German publishing house Baedeker between 1832 and 1944 to construct a hedonic price index for guidebooks. Comparing these indexes to the list prices of these guidebooks, the paper shows that the failure to adjust for improvements in the quality of the guidebooks over time imparts a substantial upward bias to measured inflation.
November 26, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Based on a narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in R&D appropriations for five major federal agencies, this paper finds that an increase in nondefense R&D appropriations leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity and higher business-sector productivity in the long run.
November 21, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?
This paper studies the effects of exposure to structural labor demand shocks during youth and adolescence on human capital accumulation and later-life earnings.
November 09, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S.
This paper examines shifts in the U.S. marriage market, assessing how online dating, demographic changes and evolving societal norms influence mate choice and broader sorting trends.
September 23, 2024
Texas high tech shakes off post-pandemic slump, readies new growth path
Texas is poised to lead in new advanced technologies, notably artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor manufacturing.
May 03, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks
This paper examines the ability of the state-of-the-art VAR approach in Kurmann and Sims (2021) to identify responses to TFP news shocks and possibly surprise shocks in theory and practice.
March 22, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
A Narrative Analysis of Federal Appropriations for Research and Development
This paper provides a narrative analysis of postwar federal appropriations for the research and development (R&D) activities of the Department of Defense, Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation—five agencies that consistently account for the vast majority of federal outlays for all types of R&D.
December 21, 2023
Mexican IT services firm pitches ‘nearshoring’ as alternative to overseas ties
Softek chief executive Beni Lopez discusses the competitive challenges the firm faces in the North American market, where many of the world’s leading tech services firms are based, and the genesis of the company’s nearshoring strategy.
July 07, 2023
Energy transition means more than just additional electric vehicles
Dallas Fed economist David Rapson discusses the challenges of moving away from a fossil-fuel-dependent economy.
May 05, 2023