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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 11,000 Jobs in June; State Employment Forecast Revised Down to 0.5 Percent Growth for 2016

For immediate release: July 22, 2016

DALLAS—Texas added 11,000 jobs in June, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 8,500 jobs in May. The monthly annualized growth rate in June was 1.1 percent. Year to date, the state lost 4,500 jobs, for an annualized growth rate of –0.1 percent, after growing 1.3 percent in 2015. The year-to-date jobs data represent a downward revision as a result of early benchmarking applied to the data for the first quarter of this year.

“The early benchmark revision to the first-quarter data suggests that the Texas economy started the year weaker than we initially thought, although the improvement in job growth and the Texas leading index since then suggest that growth in the second half of the year will be better,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.

Incorporating June’s employment data, the Texas Employment Forecast stands at 0.5 percent growth for 2016, suggesting 60,700 jobs will be added in Texas this year. This is a downward revision from last month’s forecast of 1.3 percent growth.

“Increases in oil prices since the first quarter and their stability in recent months has led to some increased optimism in the oil patch,” Phillips said. “Gains in leading indicators for the national economy along with declines in new claims for unemployment insurance and a slight rise in average weekly hours worked in manufacturing suggest continued improvement in the state’s economy.”

While the Dallas Fed’s Texas Leading Index fell slightly in June, the net three-month change was a mild but positive 0.24 percent.

Unemployment rates rose in eight of nine major Texas metro areas in June, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. The unemployment rate in Austin-Round Rock was unchanged in June.

The Dallas Fed improves the BLS payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal adjustment technique. Texas metro area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas employment forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.

For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas employment forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6748
Email: Jennifer.Chamberlain@dal.frb.org