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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 25,700 Jobs in August; State Employment Forecast Revised Up To 1.2 Percent For 2016

For immediate release: September 16, 2016

DALLAS—Texas added 25,700 jobs in August, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 31,300 jobs in July. Year to date, jobs have increased at an annualized pace of 0.8 percent after rising 1.3 percent in 2015. The monthly annualized growth rate in August was 2.6 percent.

Incorporating August employment data, the Texas Employment Forecast calls for 1.2 percent growth for 2016, suggesting 138,200 jobs will be added in Texas this year. This represents an increase from last month’s estimate of 0.8 percent.

“The recent pickup in job growth and the slight upward revision to the leading index continue to suggest that Texas will finish the second half of the year much stronger than the first,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “Since reaching a trough in March, jobs have grown at an annualized pace of 2.0 percent, and the forecast suggests a similar healthy rate of growth for the remainder of the year.”

While the Texas Leading Index is not yet available for August, revisions to July’s index show an improvement in several of the components. In particular, the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar weakened in July while initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased, both contributing positively to the index.
“Overall, broad indicators of the Texas economy show that, while declines in oil prices and expectations of further declines hit the Texas economy hard in the first quarter of the year, the economy has improved since then,” said Phillips. “With the stabilization of the energy sector in the second and third quarters, the economy is expected to continue to improve in the months ahead.”
Unemployment rates rose in seven of nine major Texas metro areas in August, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. The unemployment rate in McAllen–Edinburg–Mission fell slightly, and the El Paso metro area was flat.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.

For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
E-mail: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org