Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 10,900 Jobs in October; State Employment Forecast Revised Up to 1.5 Percent for 2016
DALLAS—Texas added 10,900 jobs in October, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 28,800 jobs in September. Year to date, jobs have increased at an annualized pace of 1.5 percent after rising 1.3 percent in 2015. The monthly annualized growth rate in October was 1.1 percent.
Incorporating October employment and new Texas Leading Index data, the Texas Employment Forecast calls for 1.5 percent growth for 2016, suggesting 183,800 jobs will be added in Texas this year. The forecast was revised upward from last month’s estimate of 1.2 percent.
“Following revisions which show that jobs in the first half of the year grew 0.8 percent, growth since then has picked up to an annualized pace of 2.4 percent,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “The recent flatness in the Texas Leading Index suggests Texas will grow at a mild pace of about 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter.”
Growth in the components of the Texas Leading Index was mixed over the three months ending in October. The increase in the value of the dollar and decline in stock prices of Texas-based companies were moderate drags on the leading index. However, an increase in new well permits and the oil price were positive contributors.
“Overall, broad indicators of the Texas economy continue to point toward moderate growth in the months ahead,” said Phillips. “With the stabilization of the energy sector and some recent improvement in the manufacturing sector, the Texas economy is on solid ground and will likely improve moderately in 2017.”
Unemployment rates fell in all nine major Texas metro areas in October, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.
For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas