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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 20,500 Jobs in November; State Employment Forecast Picks Up Slightly to 1.6 Percent For 2016

For Immediate Release: Dec. 16, 2016

DALLAS— Texas added 20,500 jobs in November, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 18,600 jobs in October. Year to date, jobs have increased at an annualized pace of 1.6 percent after rising 1.3 percent in 2015. The monthly annualized growth rate in November was 2.1 percent.

Incorporating November employment and new Texas Leading Index data, the Texas Employment Forecast stands at 1.6 percent growth for 2016, suggesting 194,100 jobs will be added in Texas this year. The forecast was revised slightly upward from last month’s estimate of 1.5 percent.

“Job growth since midyear has averaged 2.5 percent, after growing only 0.8 percent in the first half,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “Recent revisions to the Texas Leading Index show a slight increase in the index over the three months ending in October.

“The moderate pace of job growth over the past several months and the slight gains in the leading index suggest that job growth should be stable to slightly stronger in the months ahead,” Phillips said. “More recently, respondents to the November Texas Business Outlook Surveys reported increased optimism about the outlook.”

Growth in the components of the Texas Leading Index was mixed over the three months ending in October. The increase in the value of the dollar and decline in stock prices of Texas-based companies were moderate drags on the leading index. However, an increase in new well permits and the oil price were positive contributors.

Unemployment rates fell in all nine major Texas metro areas in November, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.

For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
E-mail: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org