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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 41,200 Jobs in June; State Employment Forecast Calls for 2.5 Percent Growth in 2019

For Immediate Release: July 19, 2019

DALLAS—Texas added 41,200 jobs in June, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 25,900 in May. Year-to-date annualized job growth stands at 2.7 percent compared to annual growth of 2.3 percent in 2018.

Incorporating June job growth of 3.9 percent and a mild decline in recent months in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.5 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.7 to 3.3 percent.

Based on the forecast, 321,800 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2019 will be 12.9 million.

“While the manufacturing and mining sectors have slowed this year, the decline in mortgage rates has helped boost construction jobs, which grew at an annual pace of 6.0 percent in the first half,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.

“Adding to the improvement in construction, the financial services sector has accelerated, led by gains in banking firms and insurance agencies. Job growth has been good across most metro areas with particularly strong growth in Dallas, which accelerated from 2.5 percent growth in 2018 to 4.4 percent in the first half of this year,” he said.

Unemployment rates increased in all nine major Texas metro areas in June, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. The Dallas Fed also seasonally adjusts Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
James Hoard
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-5307
Email: james.hoard@dal.frb.org