Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast strengthens

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.3 percent. 

That is up from the 1.5 percent growth forecasted last month. 

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

“The broad-based acceleration of job growth in April was strong compared with soft growth in the first quarter,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Professional and business services led overall job growth followed by construction and manufacturing. The only sectors that lost jobs last month were information services and other services, which include repair and maintenance and personal care jobs. Employment growth in major Texas metro areas was led by San Antonio, El Paso and Austin.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:        

• The forecast suggests 245,400 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2025 will be 14.4 million.      
• Texas employment grew an annualized 4.6 percent in April after a 1.4 percent growth rate in March.

The unemployment rate, which takes into account changes in the labor force along with other factors, increased in Austin–Round Rock, Brownsville–Harlingen, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, and Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.          

The rate was flat in Laredo and decreased in San Antonio–New Braunfels.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in April.     

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs

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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: jon.prior@dal.frb.org