Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast remains solid

DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 2.0 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 2.5 percent.

That is up from the 1.7 percent growth forecasted last month.

The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.

“Solid employment growth continued in May as the state added 31,300 jobs. Texas job growth at 2.5 percent year to date is outpacing its long-term trend of 2.0 percent,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “In May, gains in leisure and hospitality and oil and gas employment led overall job growth, followed by trade and transportation services and construction. The only sectors that lost jobs last month were information services and professional and business services. Employment growth in major Texas metro areas was led by Fort Worth, Austin and San Antonio. Meanwhile, Houston lost jobs last month.”

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:       

• The forecast implies 279,600 jobs will be added in Texas this year, and employment in December 2025 will be 14.5 million.
• Texas employment grew an annualized 2.6 percent in May.
  

The unemployment rate, which takes into account changes in the total labor force along with other factors, increased in, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Laredo, and San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The areas of McAllen–Edinburg–Mission, Texarkana and Tyler saw notable increases.

The rate was unchanged in Austin–Round Rock and Brownsville–Harlingen.

The Texas statewide unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in May.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates, may be found on DallasFed.org .   

-30-

Media contact:
Victoria Rosengarten
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 816-881-2308
Email: Victoria.Rosengarten@dal.frb.org