A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
‘Great ratios’ in economics don’t all add up
"Great ratios" are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency. However, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them.
October 19, 2021
What might inflation look like next year?
In our baseline scenario, core inflation is 2.6 percent in 2022. If this occurs, core inflation will have averaged 2.4 percent over the last five years, moderately above the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
October 14, 2021
Texas birth-rate decline complicates economic growth prospects
Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and, hence, slower economic expansion.
October 12, 2021
Austin Economic Indicators
The Austin economy continued to expand in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index increased, led by declines in the unemployment rate.
October 7, 2021
U.S. labor market slack created by COVID-19 pandemic has been absorbed
The weaker-than-expected August labor market report should not obscure the labor market’s ongoing and significant progress while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
October 7, 2021
Energy Indicators
Hurricane Ida temporarily impacted refining and petrochemical production, but the recovery was well underway for most facilities by the end of September.
October 6, 2021
Life insurers’ preference for familiar bond issuers limits COVID-19 shock transmission
Despite regulations that encourage diversification and informational symmetry among buyers, insurance companies tend to lend to their current borrowers. This bondholder–issuer relationship moderates the effect of transitory economic shocks such as those associated with the onset of COVID-19.
October 5, 2021
Agricultural Survey, Third Quarter 2021
Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey reported improved conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. Survey respondents noted that rainfall and moisture have contributed to above-average crop yields so far this year.
October 4, 2021
Banking Conditions Survey
Respondents in the Eleventh District financial sector were given an opportunity to comment on current issues that may be affecting their business.
October 4, 2021
PCE Inflation Update, August 2021
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.9 percent in August after increasing an annualized 4.9 percent in July.
October 1, 2021