A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in March was 2.5 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 2.3 percent on a 12-month basis, and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 2.6 percent on a 12-month basis.
April 30, 2025
Growth resumes in Texas service sector, but company outlooks deteriorated further
Texas service sector activity grew slightly in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose three points to 3.8, indicating a small increase in revenue.
April 29, 2025
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas factory activity continued to rise in April. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged. Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled contraction, however.
April 28, 2025
Asset Manager Commonality and Portfolio Similarity
Asset managers are increasingly influential in financial markets. This paper uses new regulatory as well as manually collected data on asset managers of life insurers, the largest institutional investors of corporate bonds, and finds that insurers with the same asset managers have more similar portfolios and trades.
April 25, 2025
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms and Trickle-Up Economics
This paper proposes a method to decompose changes in the tax structure into orthogonal components measuring the level and progressivity of taxes.
April 24, 2025
Weekly Economic Index
The WEI is currently 2.68 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended April 19 and 2.56 percent for April 12.
April 24, 2025
Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Federal Debt
This paper revisits the relationship between federal debt and interest rates. A common approach in the literature is to regress an expected interest rate on a projection of federal debt. This paper shows that issues related to nonstationarity have become more pronounced over the last 20 years, raising significant concern about the reliability of estimates from this model. The authors argue that estimating the model in first differences rather than in levels addresses these concerns.
April 23, 2025
Eleventh District Beige Book
Growth in the Eleventh District economy slowed to a slight pace. Nonfinancial services activity stalled. Retail sales dipped while manufacturing and oil field activity rose modestly. Lending growth moderated. Commercial real estate activity was steady, while housing demand remained tepid. Employment increased, and input cost pressures accelerated. Outlooks deteriorated as heightened uncertainty surrounding domestic and trade policy hindered firms' ability to plan.
April 23, 2025
Mexico’s economy continues to decelerate amid worsening economic outlook
The consensus forecast for 2025 real GDP growth (fourth quarter, year over year) compiled by Banco de México fell to 0.5 percent in March. The latest data available indicated a slowing economy.
April 23, 2025
Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
This paper develops a new dynamic factor model to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them.
April 22, 2025