A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Falling rates no assurance of homeowner refinancing binge
When the Fed lowers its benchmark policy rate, the reduction is usually reflected in a variety of consumer finance rates, notably mortgages. However, there are reasons to believe that such a reduction might not prompt an increase in the volume of mortgage refinances and prepayment activity as has historically occurred.
August 14, 2025
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy
This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.
August 13, 2025
Austin Economic Indicators
Austin employment fell in June and the unemployment rate declined, while wages increased. Sales tax receipts slowed in June.
August 13, 2025
Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-U.S. Global Banks
Global non-U.S. banks have significant dollar exposure both on and off their balance sheet. This paper develops a model to analyze their adjustment to dollar funding shocks, whether from reduced direct lending or external dollar shortages.
August 12, 2025
How sensitive are interest rates to higher federal debt?
The U.S. faces a historically high federal debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of debt relative to economic output. But how sensitive are interest rates to higher debt?
August 12, 2025
Texas economy softens amid uncertain outlook
Texas’ overall pace of economic growth is trending lower, with payroll employment declining in June, a marked turn from robust job gains earlier in 2025.
August 11, 2025
Low oil prices, local impact: Do depressed energy markets affect banks?
Oil prices have swung dramatically in recent years, shaped by geopolitical conflicts, evolving global demand and shifting energy policies.
August 7, 2025
Accounting for interest rate risk: Matching Fed assets to liabilities
In Depth: The Fed has floating-rate liabilities as well as long-lived, zero-interest liabilities. A barbell of floating-rate and long-duration assets would best offset the interest rate risk from these liabilities. Investing in a more diversified mix of durations, while matching the average duration of assets, could be more practical than the barbell approach but would leave a substantial portion of interest rate risk unhedged.
August 7, 2025
Time-Limited Subsidies: Optimal Taxation with Implications for Renewable Energy Subsidies
Pigouvian subsidies are efficient, but output subsidies with uncertain or limited durations are not Pigouvian. This paper shows that optimal “time-limited” policies must also subsidize investment to correct externalities generated after the output subsidy ends.
August 5, 2025
A History of U.S. Tariffs: Quantifying Strategic Trade-Offs in Tariff Policy Design
U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals—revenue, protection and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, this paper illustrates these trade-offs through the lens of tariff Laffer curves.
August 5, 2025