Research Department Working Papers
Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Federal Debt
This paper revisits the relationship between federal debt and interest rates. A common approach in the literature is to regress an expected interest rate on a projection of federal debt. This paper shows that issues related to nonstationarity have become more pronounced over the last 20 years, raising significant concern about the reliability of estimates from this model. The authors argue that estimating the model in first differences rather than in levels addresses these concerns.
April 23, 2025
Monetary policy implementation and the consolidated government balance sheet
This essay examines the trade-offs between different monetary policy implementation methods through the lens of the consolidated government balance sheet and income statement
April 15, 2025
Individuals, married couples respond differently to U.S. income tax changes
Changes in effective income taxes can impact labor supply with different outcomes for married couples and singles, and changes can have a particularly notable impact on married women.
November 19, 2024
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
This paper studies climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households, two types of goods (clean and dirty), and a climate externality from the dirty good.
July 16, 2024
Federal deficit, tax inequities, entitlement programs vie for lawmakers’ attention
Alan D. Viard, senior fellow emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute and former senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, discusses federal entitlements and tax policy challenges during an era of rising deficits.
April 15, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Create Jobs and Stimulate Growth?
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is the most extensive overhaul of the U.S. income tax code since the Tax Reform Act of 1986.
August 08, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
State-Dependent Local Projections
Do state-dependent local projections asymptotically recover the population responses of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks? The answer to this question depends on how the state of the economy is determined and on the magnitude of the shocks.
April 19, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
This paper exploits the 1997 and 2003 constitutional amendments in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market.
February 03, 2023
Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Dallas conference explored housing, urban economics
Residential real estate prices rose sharply throughout the United States following the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020. While property owners received a capital gains windfall, first-time buyers and renters have struggled with reduced affordability.
January 25, 2022
Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2021
Federal support keeps state budgets (including Texas’) healthy amid tumult from COVID-19-induced economic ills
An unprecedented federal fiscal response to the COVID-19-induced recession in early 2020 helped prop up state government finances even among states whose tax and finance structures put them at particular risk during a downturn.
September 30, 2021