A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Texas Employment Forecast
Texas employment grew 3.8 percent annualized in January after increasing a revised 6.2 percent in December. The Texas Leading Index increased for the ninth consecutive month, suggesting continued growth over the next three to six months.
March 15, 2021
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies
This paper estimates the natural interest rate for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques.
March 5, 2021
Anticipated federal restrictions would slow Permian Basin production
Possible changes to leasing and permitting requirements governing federal lands could move oil production, prompting a realignment of Permian Basin activity between Texas and New Mexico.
March 4, 2021
Global Perspectives with Richard N. Haass
On March 3, Robert S. Kaplan, president and CEO of the Dallas Fed, discussed national and global economic issues with Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations.
March 3, 2021
Eleventh District Beige Book
The Eleventh District economy expanded at a moderate pace, though output in most industries remained below normal levels.
March 3, 2021
COVID-19 risks expose vulnerabilities, downside risks to U.S. outlook
The COVID-19 crisis has adversely affected the U.S. economy, helping account for a projected 3.4 percent contraction in 2020. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates a strong 4.6 percent rebound in 2021, making up for those losses.
March 2, 2021
Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises
This paper finds that larger bailouts relax financial frictions and increase output but increase fiscal needs and default risk.
February 27, 2021
PCE Inflation Update, January 2021
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.2 percent in January after rising an annualized 4.5 percent in December.
February 26, 2021
Global Perspectives with Mike Rawlings
On February 24, Robert S. Kaplan, president and CEO of the Dallas Fed, discussed national and global economic issues with the honorable Mike Rawlings, former mayor of the City of Dallas and vice chairman of CIC Partners.
February 24, 2021
Texas Service Sector Activity Grows Slightly
Activity in the Texas service sector increased slightly in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
February 23, 2021