A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Eleventh District Beige Book
The Eleventh District economy expanded modestly over the reporting period. Activity grew moderately in nonfinancial services but was flat to down in manufacturing, retail, finance, and energy.
October 23, 2024
The Macroeconomics of Labor, Credit and Financial Market Imperfections
An increasing share of corporate loans, a critical source of firm credit, are sold off banks’ balance sheets and actively traded in a secondary over-the-counter market. This paper develops a microfounded equilibrium search-theoretic model with labor, credit and financial markets to explore how this secondary loan market affects the real economy.
October 22, 2024
Texas Economic Indicators
The Texas economy continued to expand in September. Employment growth was robust, and the unemployment rate was unchanged.
October 22, 2024
International factors broadly explain postpandemic inflation
The recent co-movement of inflation across countries, including the U.S., can be explained in part by global and regional factors. Policymakers, who have tended to more closely look closer to home may want to more broadly consider global events and pressures when addressing changing inflation pressures.
October 22, 2024
Normalizing the FOMC’s monetary policy tools
President Lorie K. Logan describes policy considerations for normalizing the Fed’s assets and liabilities.
October 21, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 2.7 percent.
October 18, 2024
What Fuels the Volatility of Electricity Prices?
This paper uses emergency outages of coal generators as an exogenous source of variation in the power generation stack to study how changes in marginal fuel affect real-time prices. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, the authors find that wholesale prices are less volatile when natural gas is on the margin more often.
October 15, 2024
Foundational considerations in a changing economy
President Lorie K. Logan offers her views on the evolving economy and how she is continuing to apply foundational considerations to thinking about monetary policy in this new environment.
October 9, 2024
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable
The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?
October 8, 2024
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volume declined in October despite the drop in loan prices, according to banking executives responding to the Banking Conditions Survey.
October 7, 2024