A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Federal Debt
This paper revisits the relationship between federal debt and interest rates, which is a key input for assessments of fiscal sustainability.
April 23, 2025
Eleventh District Beige Book
Growth in the Eleventh District economy slowed to a slight pace. Nonfinancial services activity stalled. Retail sales dipped while manufacturing and oil field activity rose modestly. Lending growth moderated. Commercial real estate activity was steady, while housing demand remained tepid. Employment increased, and input cost pressures accelerated. Outlooks deteriorated as heightened uncertainty surrounding domestic and trade policy hindered firms' ability to plan.
April 23, 2025
Mexico’s economy continues to decelerate amid worsening economic outlook
The consensus forecast for 2025 real GDP growth (fourth quarter, year over year) compiled by Banco de México fell to 0.5 percent in March. The latest data available indicated a slowing economy.
April 23, 2025
Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
This paper develops a new dynamic factor model to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them.
April 22, 2025
Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle
The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.
April 22, 2025
Energy Indicators, April 2025
U.S. oil and natural gas rig counts declined in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the first quarter of 2024. U.S. days of supply of crude, gasoline and distillate were above the five-year average. U.S. retail fuel prices were down in March along with Brent crude oil. The U.S. producer price index (PPI) for electricity increased.
April 21, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast, April 18
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.2 percent.
April 18, 2025
Water restrictions, conservation a 24/7 routine in Abilene and the Big Country
Steve Estes, the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service agent for Taylor County, offers his perspective on how ranchers, farmers and city dwellers can collectively work to ensure that the area makes the best decisions regarding precious water resources
April 18, 2025
Houston Economic Indicators, April 2025
Houston's labor market expanded at a moderate pace over the three months ending in February 2025, and the unemployment rate remained flat from January to February.
April 17, 2025
Shoring up water supply, curbing demand key to Texas’ future growth
Funding for water infrastructure improvements has emerged as a priority for the Legislature during its 2025 legislative session. Absent changes to policy, Texans could face significant water shortages during droughts and constraints on future growth and economic development.
April 16, 2025