A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions
Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically imposed in estimating sign-identified VAR models may be unintentionally informative about the implied prior for the structural impulse responses. This paper shows that this question is indeed important but the tools that have been used in the literature to illustrate this potential problem are invalid.
December 3, 2020
Eleventh District Beige Book
The Eleventh District economy expanded at a modest pace, but activity in most industries remained below normal levels. Recovery in the manufacturing, retail, and services sectors slowed.
December 2, 2020
San Antonio Economic Indicators
In October, the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index rebounded from its decline in September. The unemployment rate ticked down as recent job numbers improved.
December 1, 2020
Texas Service Sector Activity Flattens Out
Activity in the Texas service sector remained mostly flat in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
December 1, 2020
Global Perspectives: Mark Carney on leading the Bank of England, climate change, COVID-19 and community involvement
Mark Carney, special envoy for climate action and finance at the United Nations, discussed climate change and central banks, COVID-19 and central banking, the complementary roles of monetary and fiscal policy, and community engagement with Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan.
December 1, 2020
PCE Inflation Update, October 2020
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was unchanged in October after rising an annualized 1.9 percent in September.
November 25, 2020
Texas Economic Indicators
After growth slowed in September, the Texas economy showed signs of acceleration in October as payroll growth strengthened and the unemployment rate began to decline again.
November 24, 2020
Texas Employment Forecast
Texas employment grew 10.6 percent annualized in October after increasing a revised 4.7 percent in September. Incorporating early benchmark revisions to second-quarter data, jobs are down 6.5 percent since December 2019.
November 20, 2020
Energy Indicators
Choppy oil prices have averaged near $40 per barrel the past three months, and oilfield activity has risen from summer lows.
November 20, 2020
Real-Time Population Survey (RPS)
The unemployment rate in the RPS was 10.0 percent for Nov. 8–14, a decrease relative to the estimate of 11.6 percent for Oct. 11–17.
November 20, 2020