A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
What Drives Cyber Losses at U.S. Banks? Potential Statistical Markers
This paper models average annual loss (AAL) rates from “attritional” cyber-attacks and other cyber events using new, individual bank level data from the CyberCube “analytics platform” combined with standard bank performance measures.
May 15, 2025
Weekly Economic Index
The WEI is currently 2.09 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended May 10 and 2.55 percent for May 3.
May 15, 2025
Texas’ economic outlook deteriorates as tariff-related uncertainty builds
While lagging indicators reflect resilient growth for the Texas economy, more recent survey data suggest diminished momentum amid elevated uncertainty about the outlook.
May 15, 2025
The Social Returns to Public R&D
Recent empirical evidence by Fieldhouse and Mertens (2024) points to a strong causal link between federal nondefense R&D funding and private-sector productivity growth, and large implied social returns to public R&D investment. This paper shows that these high social return estimates broadly align with existing evidence on the social returns to private or total R&D spending.
May 14, 2025
Permian Basin Economic Indicators
Employment in the Permian Basin grew in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the region increased slightly from the end of fourth quarter 2024. Home sales decreased, while the median price of homes sold fell slightly.
May 14, 2025
An Information-Based Theory of Monopsony Power
This paper develops a tractable model of monopsony power based on information frictions in job search.
May 13, 2025
Rio Grande Valley Economic Indicators
The Rio Grande Valley saw strong employment growth in the first quarter. Unemployment rose, and year-over-year wage increases were mixed. Cross-border trade fell off.
May 13, 2025
U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses
In Depth: U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously.
May 13, 2025
Relieving Financial Distress Increases Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Mortgage Market
Borrowers who refinanced mortgages between 2009 and 2012, a period marked by mortgage distress and dislocated housing markets, but also falling interest rates, were more likely to vote in the 2012 general election than similar borrowers who did not refinance. This paper exploits an eligibility cutoff in the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify a causal relationship.
May 12, 2025
The Conventional Impulse Response Prior in VAR Models with Sign Restrictions
Some studies have expressed concern that the Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar prior typically employed in estimating sign-identified VAR models may be unintentionally informative about the implied prior for the structural impulse responses. This paper discusses how this prior may be reported and makes explicit what impulse response priors a number of recently published studies specified, allowing the readers to decide whether they are comfortable with this prior.
May 9, 2025