A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.
April 3, 2025
Texas Economic Indicators, February 2025
The Texas economy expanded in February. Employment growth was solid, and sales tax revenue increased broadly.
April 3, 2025
Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
April 3, 2025
Growth decelerates in Texas service sector as company outlooks worsen
Texas service sector activity stalled in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
April 1, 2025
Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
April 1, 2025
Growth resumes in Texas manufacturing activity
Texas factory activity rose in March after declining in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
March 31, 2025
Oil and gas industry shows discipline on capex, but risks remain
Oil and gas companies will likely maintain a conservative stance toward production growth, with continued focus on capital discipline and maintenance capex.
March 31, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast, March 28
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.6 percent.
March 28, 2025
Last Resort Insurance: Wildfires and the Regulation of a Crashing Market
An increasing number of people are denied home insurance coverage in the private market and must instead turn to state-sponsored plans known as “Insurers of Last Resort.” This paper examines how insurers of last resort interact with the private market under increasing disaster risks.
March 26, 2025
Oil and gas activity edges higher; uncertainty rising, costs increase
Activity in the oil and gas sector increased slightly in first quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
March 26, 2025