A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Strong U.S. labor market drives record remittances to Mexico
Remittances from the U.S. to Mexico reached a record $55.9 billion in 2022. Strong employment in the U.S. construction sector—a leading employer of Mexican migrants—best explains the recent growth of remittances to Mexico.
October 20, 2023
How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
A normalized labor market likely entails a more-usual relationship between layoffs and labor market tightness indicators, and sooner or later, a higher unemployment rate.
October 19, 2023
Hotter summer days heat up Texans but chill the state economy
As climate change intensifies over the next decade, summer heat waves will likely become more common and severe. The effect on Texas GDP growth is likely to be twice as pronounced as in the rest of the U.S. Meanwhile, the effect on job growth will likely be relatively subdued but vary widely across sectors.
October 18, 2023
Eleventh District Beige Book, Oct. 18, 2023
The Eleventh District economy continued to expand at a modest pace overall. Growth moderated in the service sector but rebounded in manufacturing and energy. Retail and financial services activity declined. Existing-home sales dipped while new home sales were mostly solid.
October 18, 2023
Record-breaking Texas summer heat tests the grid, ERCOT operations
Texas just witnessed its second-hottest summer ever and its highest electricity demand without experiencing interruption to electricity delivery.
October 17, 2023
Mexico’s economic momentum continues; outlook improves
Mexico’s real GDP grew at a revised annualized 3.4 percent in the second quarter, about the same as the previous quarter’s gains of 3.3 percent. This is the seventh consecutive quarter the Mexican economy has expanded, and growth is generally surprising to the upside.
October 12, 2023
Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Banks and researchers conventionally model the response of deposit interest rates to market interest rates as constant, implying that deposits have nearly constant duration. Contrary to this standard assumption, this paper shows empirically that the “beta” of deposit rates to market rates increases as market rates rise, causing the duration of deposits to fall.
October 10, 2023
Russian ruble buckles under trade sanctions, declining export earnings
Russia’s currency is losing value, falling 40 percent against the U.S. dollar since December 2022. With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness.
October 10, 2023
Financial conditions and the monetary policy outlook
In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the monetary policy implications of recent rises in long-term interest rates depend on whether the increases result from economic strength or elevated term premiums.
October 9, 2023
Energy Indicators, September 2023
Resilient demand and constricted supply due to OPEC+ production cuts will leave crude oil balances in a deficit for the remainder of the year, even with continually increasing U.S. production.
October 5, 2023