Research Department Working Papers
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.
May 21, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Asset Manager Commonality and Portfolio Similarity
Asset managers are increasingly influential in financial markets. This paper uses new regulatory as well as manually collected data on asset managers of life insurers, the largest institutional investors of corporate bonds, and finds that insurers with the same asset managers have more similar portfolios and trades.
April 25, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
The Macroeconomics of Labor, Credit and Financial Market Imperfections
An increasing share of corporate loans, a critical source of firm credit, are sold off banks’ balance sheets and actively traded in a secondary over-the-counter market. This paper develops a microfounded equilibrium search-theoretic model with labor, credit and financial markets to explore how this secondary loan market affects the real economy.
October 22, 2024
Moving up, falling back or staying still: How income mobility in Texas differs by race, ethnicity
This article analyzes how different demographic groups can climb the income ladder and move into higher-income groups.
July 19, 2024
Income disparities between white and Hispanic and Black Texans seen from 2005 to 2019
In the United States, a great deal of research has documented income disparities across racial and ethnic groups over time. If left unaddressed, those disparities could act as a headwind to future economic growth, especially given the country’s increasingly diverse population.
May 23, 2024
Economic Inclusion Fireside Chat: Michael Weber and Jeff Fuhrer on an inclusive economy
Michael Weber, an associate professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and Jeff Fuhrer, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and the Eastern Bank Foundation, provided insight into the importance of thinking about diverse communities in policymaking at the inaugural Economic Inclusion Seminar Series Fireside Chat.
February 12, 2024
Widening gap between rich and poor poses challenge to U.S.
Economist Jeffrey Fuhrer, a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Boston Fed director of research, discusses the nation’s income and wealth gaps and offers proposals to close them. Fuhrer’s recently published book, “The Myth that Made Us,” explores inequalities in the nation’s economic system.
December 13, 2023
Fed credibility enhanced when public finds policymakers relatable
University of Chicago Booth School associate professor Michael Weber explains how audiences are especially receptive to monetary policy messaging delivered by Fed officials whose ethnic or gender background is similar to theirs and outlines the broader implications of such enhanced credibility.
December 06, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Banks and researchers conventionally model the response of deposit interest rates to market interest rates as constant, implying that deposits have nearly constant duration. Contrary to this standard assumption, this paper shows empirically that the “beta” of deposit rates to market rates increases as market rates rise, causing the duration of deposits to fall.
October 10, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects
Contrary to the prevailing belief that incurrence covenants offer limited protection for creditors, this paper reveals a significant and sudden decline in investment upon triggering these covenants.
August 22, 2023