Research Department Working Papers
Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Banks and researchers conventionally model the response of deposit interest rates to market interest rates as constant, implying that deposits have nearly constant duration. Contrary to this standard assumption, this paper shows empirically that the “beta” of deposit rates to market rates increases as market rates rise, causing the duration of deposits to fall.
October 10, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects
Contrary to the prevailing belief that incurrence covenants offer limited protection for creditors, this paper reveals a significant and sudden decline in investment upon triggering these covenants.
August 22, 2023
Labor market recovery and wage growth unequal across age groups after pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic severely depressed U.S. labor force participation. Although the pandemic has eased, people ages 20–24 and those over 55 have been less likely to return to the workforce.
August 02, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy
This paper focuses on some of the lessons we have learned over the years: (i) uncertainty and tail risk have cyclical variation; (ii) financial shocks can have a significant effect on macroeconomic outcomes; (iii) the impact of shocks is stronger in periods of high volatility.
July 07, 2023
EITC increases labor force participation among married Black mothers
Research has shown that the Earned Income Tax Credit, the largest of the U.S. antipoverty programs, boosts labor force participation among single mothers. It does not, in the aggregate, have the same effect on married mothers.
June 21, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Novel Asset Market Monitoring Tools for Building Economic Resilience and Mitigating Financial Risks
This paper argues that asset pricing bubbles are an important source of financial instabilities.
June 02, 2023
Expanded central clearing would increase Treasury market resilience
The smooth functioning of markets for Treasury securities is critically important to the U.S. economy. The federal government relies on the sale of Treasuries to finance essential services, and the Federal Reserve uses Treasury markets to implement monetary policy.
December 23, 2022
Lowest-income workers see accelerated earnings growth during pandemic
In many respects, the pandemic has disproportionately harmed low-income workers. Earnings growth, triggered by labor shortages and high turnover rates, could be a rare exception.
August 08, 2022
Greater Hispanic outreach can improve take-up of earned income tax credit
Despite the Earned Income Tax Credit’s many benefits, a large percentage of qualified workers do not claim it.
March 21, 2022
How PPP loans eluded small businesses of color
Using national- and state-representative data from small business owners from the Federal Reserve System’s Small Business Credit Survey, we found that small business owners of color were in greater need of financial support than their white-owned counterparts, but they successfully accessed the PPP less frequently.
November 29, 2021