A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Why Do Households Save and Work?
This paper develops and estimates a dynamic life-cycle model to quantify why households save and work. The model incorporates multiple sources of risk—health, marital status, wages, medical expenses and mortality—as well as endogenous labor supply and human capital accumulation, retirement, and bequest motives at the death of the first and last household member.
July 15, 2025
Opening remarks for moderated conversation at the World Affairs Council of San Antonio
Dallas Fed President Logan's base case is that monetary policy needs to hold tight for a while longer to bring inflation sustainably back to target, but she believes it's also quite plausible that some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon.
July 15, 2025
How sensitive is the Treasury cash-futures basis trade to funding condition shifts?
In Depth: The Treasury cash-futures basis trade, a very large, leveraged Treasury trade, has drawn scrutiny because unwinding positions amplified stress during the pandemic-era market shock of March 2020. Although the trade has since become more prominent, recent market activity suggest that financial stability concerns have not simultaneously grown.
July 15, 2025
Energy Indicators
Production from OPEC+ member countries is increasing. That’s keeping downward pressure on oil prices, tempering the impact of recent attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States.
July 9, 2025
China remains modest player in U.S.–Mexico trade despite growing scrutiny
Understanding Mexico’s evolving economic linkages with East Asia and China is critical to the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA trade accord) and the nearshoring and integration of North American manufacturing supply chains.
July 9, 2025
Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.
July 8, 2025
An Asset-Liability Management Approach to the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
The Federal Reserve’s liabilities include a mix of floating-rate instruments, such as reserves, and long-duration, non-interest-bearing instruments, such as currency. This paper investigates the implications of an asset-liability management approach to choosing assets to back these liabilities, with a focus on matching the duration of assets and liabilities.
July 3, 2025
Weekly Economic Index
The WEI is currently 2.52 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 5 and 2.13 percent for June 28. The 13-week moving average is 2.21 percent.
July 10, 2025
Dallas−Fort Worth Economic Indicators
The Dallas−Fort Worth economy expanded in May. Employment grew across most sectors. Unemployment held steady, and hourly earnings rose.
July 3, 2025
El Paso Economic Indicators
Employment in El Paso grew slightly in May, while the unemployment rate ticked up further. The number of single-family housing permits was relatively unchanged in April, and trade volumes continued to trend upward.
July 2, 2025