Dallas Fed recent additions
A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Texas Employment Forecast
Incorporating May job growth of 2.1 percent and a moderate decrease in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.3 percent this year.
June 21, 2019
Austin Economic Indicators
The Austin economy grew at a solid pace in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend.
June 6, 2019
Has U.S. monetary policy gone off track?
The actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be explained by the committee’s pursuit of full employment and price stability.
June 6, 2019
U.S. tax cuts boost economy—but for how long?
Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes.
June 4, 2019
Monetary Policy Spillovers, Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates
This paper assesses the empirical validity of the trilemma (or impossible trinity) in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies.
May 31, 2019
Houston Economic Indicators
Recent data for Houston were positive. These data suggest a healthy near-term outlook for the Houston region.
May 31, 2019
PCE Inflation Update, April 2019
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 3.8 percent at an annualized rate in April following a 2.5 percent annualized increase in March.
May 31, 2019
Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Estimates Across Time and Space
This paper suggests the use of a correlated random effects model for the panel estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments.
May 30, 2019
Room to grow? Inflation and labor market slack
Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.
May 30, 2019
Which core to believe? Trimmed mean versus ex-food-and-energy inflation
Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course.
May 28, 2019