A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Revisiting the odd behavior of the Beveridge curve as unemployment stays low
At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
March 5, 2024
Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators
The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded in December. Payroll employment rose moderately, and unemployment dipped. Home prices were relatively flat in the fourth quarter, and affordability held steady.
March 1, 2024
Discussion of ‘Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?’ by Wenxin Du, Kristin Forbes and Matthew Luzzetti
President Logan discussed a new report on quantitative tightening around the world and implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
March 1, 2024
Growth resumes in Texas service sector activity, company outlook improves
Texas service sector activity expanded in February after contracting in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
February 27, 2024
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas factory activity stabilized in February after contracting in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
February 26, 2024
The Dual Beveridge Curve
This paper proposes a novel dual vacancy model that segments the labor market into separate search processes for unemployed and employed workers and provides a better fit to the data than traditional models assuming a homogeneous market.
February 21, 2024
Permian Basin Economic Indicators
Permian Basin employment and wages rose during fourth quarter 2023, while the unemployment rate fell. The region’s rig count and the price of oil notably declined.
February 20, 2024
Inflation forecasts based on money growth proved accurate in 2021, though generally unreliable
As money demand changes, and in particular as money velocity fluctuates with interest rates, this relationship can become unstable with money growth providing limited useful information for inflation forecasting.
February 20, 2024
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volumes remained stable, with near-equal shares of bankers reporting an increase over the past six weeks as those reporting a decrease.
February 20, 2024
Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators
Las Cruces’ economy rebounded in fourth quarter 2023 after weakening in the third. Employment grew broadly, and the unemployment rate held steady. Hourly earnings declined in Las Cruces and New Mexico in 2023.
February 15, 2024