A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Energy Indicators, July 17, 2024
Natural gas exports are recovering and poised to rise further. Real power prices are rising—achieving new highs—while the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) eyes the potential for August power outages.
July 17, 2024
Eleventh District Beige Book, July 17, 2024
The Eleventh District economy expanded slightly over the reporting period. Activity grew in the nonfinancial services, finance, and energy sectors. Manufacturing output was flat, while retail sales and home sales declined.
July 17, 2024
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
This paper characterizes optimal climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households and non-homothetic preferences. The authors focus on constrained efficiency, where the planner is restricted from transferring resources across households.
July 16, 2024
Running the economy hotter for longer could steepen Phillips curve
In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.
July 16, 2024
Houston Economic Indicators, July 2024
Houston’s labor market growth was broad based in May 2024, but slowdowns in top sectors weighed on growth. Employment growth in the metro area is in-line with the nation, and unemployment has been holding steady. Average hourly earnings in Houston ticked up slightly year over year.
July 10, 2024
Electricity providers hard pressed to keep up with growing tech-heavy demand
Dallas Fed economist Kunal Patel discusses the strains on the power grid, including those arising from Texas’ growing population, electrification of the economy, nearshoring and evolving technologies.
July 10, 2024
When Is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate?
Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically employed in estimating sign-identified VAR models is driving the prior about the structural impulse responses and hence their posterior. This paper provides evidence that the quantitative importance of the Haar prior for posterior inference has been overstated.
July 9, 2024
Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
July 9, 2024
Austin Economic Indicators, July 2024
Austin employment growth slowed in May, the unemployment rate remained the same, and wages increased. The median house price was unchanged, and home inventories fell.
July 8, 2024
Austin’s ecosystem combines government, education and the tech industry
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's 360° Listening Tour is taking her to communities all around the Eleventh Federal Reserve District. The tour is helping deepen her understanding of the region’s people and economy by adding color and perspective that go beyond official statistics.
July 8, 2024