Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

Abstract: The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) are monthly surveys of service sector and retail firms in Texas conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TSSOS and TROS track the Texas private services sector, including general service businesses, retailers and wholesalers. The surveys provide invaluable information on regional economic conditions—information that Dallas Fed economists and the Bank president use in the formulation of monetary policy. This paper describes the survey’s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS and TROS indexes with regard to Texas employment growth. Regression analysis shows that several TSSOS and TROS indexes help explain monthly variation in Texas employment. In addition, most TSSOS and TROS indexes are also useful in forecasting Texas employment growth.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24149/wp1807

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