Surveys

Special Questions

June 29, 2026

Special Questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on wages, prices and outlook concerns. Results below include responses from participants from both the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

Texas Business Outlook Surveys

Data were collected June 16–24, and 262 Texas business executives responded to the surveys.

1a. What percent change in wages, input prices and selling prices did your firm experience over the past 12 months?

Wage and price growth has accelerated. Texas firms surveyed report wage growth of 4.0 percent over the past 12 months, on average, up markedly from 3.5 percent in March and representing the strongest pace seen since December 2024. Input price growth averaged 4.4 percent and selling price growth averaged 2.9 percent, both up slightly from March. The recent pickup in growth was seen in both the service and manufacturing sectors, but was more pronounced in manufacturing.

Chart 1a — Downloadable chart Chart data

1b. What percent change in wages, input prices and selling prices do you expect over the next 12 months?

Price growth expectations were flat to down slightly while wage growth expectations reversed trend and moved up. Texas firms surveyed expect wages to increase 3.5 percent over the next 12 months, on average. They expect input prices to increase 3.7 percent and selling prices to increase 2.8 percent. The pickup in expectations for wage growth is broad-based across sectors, while the easing in input price growth is only expected in the manufacturing sector, not among service sector firms collectively.

Chart 1b — Downloadable chart Chart data

2. What are the primary concerns around your firm's outlook over the next six months, if any? Please select up to three?

Inflation rose to the most widely-cited outlook concern, while the share of firms citing geopolitical uncertainty retreated but remained elevated. The level of demand remains a top-three concern. The share of firms citing labor costs rose notably in June, while the share citing supply-chain disruptions fell markedly.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected June 16–24, and 59 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

1. What percent change in wages, input prices and selling prices did your firm experience over the past 12 months, and what do you expect over the next 12 months?

	Sep. '25 (percent)		Dec. '25 (percent)		Mar. '26 (percent)		Jun. '26 (percent)
	Past 12 months	Next 12 months	Past 12 months	Next 12 months	Past 12 months	Next 12 months	Past 12 months	Next 12 months
Wages	3.8	3.2	3.4	3.3	3.9	3.4	4.8	3.7
Input prices (excluding wages)	5.8	4.2	5.5	4.1	6.0	4.5	6.1	3.8
Selling prices	3.8	3.8	2.7	2.7	3.9	3.7	4.8	3.8

NOTES: 57 responses. Shown are averages, calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 5 percent of responses omitted.

2. What are the primary concerns around your firm’s outlook over the next six months, if any? Please select up to three.

	Mar. '25 (percent)	Jun. '25 (percent)	Sep. '25 (percent)	Dec. '25 (percent)	Mar. '26 (percent)	Jun. '26 (percent)
Input costs/inflation	43.8	45.2	45.5	46.4	44.0	52.5
Geopolitical uncertainty	30.0	43.8	31.8	30.4	49.3	49.2
Level of demand/potential recession	50.0	47.9	50.0	53.6	49.3	37.3
Supply-chain disruptions	17.5	30.1	19.7	17.4	32.0	30.5
Domestic policy uncertainty	40.0	27.4	40.9	39.1	29.3	27.1
Labor costs	15.0	13.7	27.3	17.4	16.0	27.1
Labor shortages/difficulty hiring	18.8	17.8	22.7	18.8	21.3	23.7
Cost of credit/interest rates	10.0	13.7	10.6	13.0	13.3	13.6
Taxes and regulation	23.8	23.3	12.1	11.6	9.3	6.8
Other	15.0	11.0	7.6	7.2	4.0	5.1
None	2.5	0.0	1.5	2.9	2.7	0.0

NOTE: 59 responses.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected June 16–24, and 203 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

1. What percent change in wages, input prices and selling prices did your firm experience over the past 12 months, and what do you expect over the next 12 months?

	Sep. '25 (percent)		Dec. '25 (percent)		Mar. '26 (percent)		Jun. '26 (percent)
	Past 12 months	Next 12 months	Past 12 months	Next 12 months	Past 12 months	Next 12 months	Past 12 months	Next 12 months
Wages	3.8	3.4	3.6	3.3	3.4	3.0	3.8	3.5
Input prices (excluding wages)	4.2	3.7	3.7	3.1	3.7	3.7	3.9	3.8
Selling prices	2.4	2.8	2.2	2.4	2.3	2.5	2.4	2.5

NOTES: 189 responses. Shown are averages, calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 5 percent of responses omitted.

2. What are the primary concerns around your firm’s outlook over the next six months, if any? Please select up to three.

	Mar. '25 (percent)	Jun. '25 (percent)	Sep. '25 (percent)	Dec. '25 (percent)	Mar. '26 (percent)	Jun. '26 (percent)
Input costs/inflation	33.1	29.2	35.3	39.9	39.1	47.3
Level of demand/potential recession	50.0	44.6	49.6	49.8	40.0	43.8
Geopolitical uncertainty	26.3	40.4	25.6	24.2	59.1	40.4
Domestic policy uncertainty	46.2	39.6	37.0	42.2	34.2	31.5
Labor costs	19.1	19.6	24.4	18.8	16.9	23.2
Cost of credit/interest rates	19.9	25.4	19.7	21.1	18.2	19.7
Labor shortages/difficulty hiring	18.2	19.2	22.7	18.4	16.4	18.7
Taxes and regulation	19.5	18.3	17.6	18.4	9.8	12.3
Supply-chain disruptions	15.3	12.5	9.2	7.2	13.8	7.9
Other	6.8	7.1	7.1	6.7	8.9	6.9
None	1.7	1.7	3.4	2.7	2.2	2.5

NOTE: 203 responses.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Special Questions Comments

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

Lower interest rates are urgently needed, please.

Food manufacturing

Political polarization and superficial thinking are lethal.

Machinery manufacturing

It’s funny—not—that when we see demand drop, taxes don’t.
Trade and tariffs are of major concern.
Free the free market.

Printing and related support activities

Raw material prices will fall, but there is uncertainty as to when and by how much.

Transportation equipment manufacturing

The Trump administration has created various difficulties for our company including the ability to import and export to some of our trade partners in other parts of the world. This has definitely disrupted our supply chain currently, requiring us to purchase materials as far out as 18 months versus only 2-4 weeks previously.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Administrative and support services

It is tough to pick just three [outlook concerns]. Our primary concern is the level of demand and the potential for recession. I could honestly check almost every box right now. There’s an underlying economic uncertainty that our clients seem to have made peace with: they’re recognizing they’ll need to hire in spite of it, and then running into the real problem—finding the right talent once they’ve committed. On wages: salaries are flat, but commissions move with demand, so softer demand pulls total compensation down.

Credit intermediation and related activities

Because of positive change in the attitude of enforcing additional regulations, eliminating unnecessary regulations and a more practical approach of regulators, there is less concern about regulations for now.

Educational services

Our selling prices are fixed by law. We have not increased pay rates, but we are now hiring at the top of pay bands rather than first quartile or middle.

Food services and drinking places

My restaurants are experiencing huge price increases for protein, and when we look forward, things aren’t going to get better due to the cattle shortage, avian flu killing 11 million egg-laying hens and fuel price increases spelling slimmer profits. We can’t keep up with the increase before customers push back as their incomes shrink because of inflation.

Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods

Because fuel is a big component of our input cost (both raw materials and actual transportation), I’m forecasting a drop in selling prices/input costs if fuel prices go down.

Motor vehicle and parts dealers

The automotive industry is under the FTC’s microscope. Currently, it’s not clear what impact this will have on operations.
Oil and gasoline prices continue to be a big concern with consumers, although it’s not affecting the vehicle choice as much as just slowing decisions to spend.

Professional, scientific and technical services

Oil prices impact our oil and gas exploration clients as well as refinery clients. The cost of products from refineries impacts petrochemical clients. Thus, oil prices impact at least three of our market sectors.
As a sole proprietor in a consulting business, materials and labor don’t directly impact my day-to-day business. The impacts are on the companies I provide services to.
We are still having issues finding good, qualified employees. That is our biggest holdback.

Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments and related activities

The increase in the 5-year Treasury note rates from 3.5 percent before the Iran War to 4.17 percent today has adversely affected our profits. The cost of tenant finish-out improvements has soared, putting pressure on margins, since the additional costs cannot be passed on in the form of higher rents.

Questions regarding the Texas Business Outlook Surveys can be addressed to Emily Kerr at emily.kerr@dal.frb.org.