Dallas Fed recent additions

• Gravity Channels in Trade

  Gravity variables such as distance, adjacency, colony, free trade agreements or language are used to capture the effects of trade costs in empirical studies.

  January 18, 2017

• Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty: New Evidence on the Effects of US and non-US Oil Production

  This paper examines the dynamic effects of US and non-US oil production shocks on economic policy uncertainty using a structural VAR model.

  January 17, 2017

• Permian Basin Economic Indicators, January 2017

  The Permian Basin labor market continued to improve in November. Oil prices were generally stable as there was optimism that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will follow through on the production agreement reached at the end of November.

  January 11, 2017

• Austin Economic Indicators, January 2017

  The Austin economy expanded at a moderate pace in November. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to decelerate, though growth remains positive.

  January 5, 2017

• Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios

  This paper provides estimates of the number of newly arriving unauthorized workers from Mexico, the principal source of unauthorized immigrants to the United States, and examines how the inflow is related to U.S. and Mexico economic conditions.

  January 5, 2017

• Fiscal Stabilization and the Credibility of the U.S. Budget Sequestration Spending Austerity

  Fiscal imbalances predating the Great Recession but aggravated by it prompted the U.S. Congress to enact in 2011 legislation that, in the absence of other measures, would trigger two years later a so-called "budget sequestration" procedure that implied reducing government discretionary spending to unprecedented low levels over the following decade.

  January 5, 2017

• Forward Guidance and the State of the Economy

  This paper examines forward guidance using a nonlinear New Keynesian model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate.

  January 5, 2017

• The Roles of Inflation Expectations, Core Inflation, and Slack in Real-Time Inflation Forecasting 

  Using state-space modeling, we extract information from surveys of long-term inflation expectations and multiple quarterly inflation series to undertake a real-time decomposition of quarterly headline PCE and GDP-deflator inflation rates into a common long-term trend, common cyclical component, and high-frequency noise components.

  January 5, 2017

• The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty

  his paper documents a strong negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and real GDP growth since the Great Recession.

  January 5, 2017

• Capital Goods Trade, Relative Prices, and Economic Development

  International trade in capital goods has quantitatively important effects on economic development through two channels: capital formation and aggregate TFP.

  January 3, 2017