Eleventh District Beige Book

Summary of economic activity

The Eleventh District economy expanded modestly. While activity in services and housing grew, manufacturing output, retail sales, and loan demand declined slightly. Employment growth slowed as wages, input costs, and selling prices grew at a moderate pace. Demand for nonprofit services remained elevated. Overall, Texas firms noted an uptick in uncertainty, particularly among manufacturing firms. Weakening demand and domestic political uncertainty were top outlook concerns.

Labor markets

Employment growth slowed over the past six weeks Labor availability improved and contacts noted higher retention rates. A few contacts continued to cite difficulty hiring, particularly for positions such as truck drivers and engineers. Staffing firms mentioned that despite a slow-down in hiring, there is an increased preference for permanent employees over temporary or contract workers.

Wage growth was moderate over the past six weeks. Staffing firms noted continued declines in wage pressure, while a technology firm stated that wage increases were now in line with historical averages. A manufacturer mentioned not having to increase wages at all due to plentiful job applicants and higher retention. A Dallas Fed survey of about 350 Texas business executives in March showed that wage growth was 4.9 percent over the past 12 months, on average, and is expected to slow to 3.6 percent over the next 12 months.

Prices

Prices rose moderately over the past six weeks. Growth in prices for manufactured goods resumed and raw materials price growth ticked up. Meanwhile, price growth in the service sector held steady at a moderate pace. Auto dealers reported that while increased car inventories placed downward pressure on vehicle prices, they increased inventory costs. Airlines noted input prices rose due to elevated labor costs, fuel prices, and maintenance. Retail motor fuel prices were slightly higher as refineries on the Gulf Coast were coming online again after both unplanned and annual maintenance outages. Manufacturers expect selling price growth to pick up over the next 12 months but remain moderate, while service sector executives expect price growth to moderate further.

Manufacturing

Overall manufacturing activity declined slightly over the past six weeks. The decline was overwhelmingly due to weakness in durables good production, particularly metals, machinery, and computer and electronics manufacturing. Nondurable goods production increased moderately, driven by food and chemical manufacturing. Chemical plant utilization ticked up, and contacts noted rising new orders, better pricing and margins, and a return of capacity after unplanned winter outages and early spring maintenance. Weakening demand, domestic political uncertainty, and elevated input costs were the top three outlook concerns for the manufacturing sector.

Retail sales

Retail sales declined modestly over the past six weeks. Auto dealers noted higher sales volume but declining margins and increasing inventory. Some contacts including a health store retailer and a nondurable goods wholesaler reported consumers pulling-back in purchases because of higher prices. Meanwhile, another nondurable wholesaler commented that consumers are returning, and sales picked up because consumers have baked-in higher prices into their budgets. Retail outlooks remained pessimistic, weighed down by weakening demand and elevated input costs.

Nonfinancial services

Service sector activity continued to rise modestly in the reporting period. Revenue growth was led by professional and business services and leisure and hospitality. Airline travel in the District remained strong with continued robust demand for leisure travel and growing demand for business travel. Transportation and warehousing activity declined overall; however, activity at Gulf Coast ports was up, particularly driven by resin exports. Health care reported weakening activity while staffing firms noted an unexpected slowdown in demand, but expect a pick-up in the second quarter, particularly for white-collar jobs. Weakening demand, domestic political uncertainty, and higher labor costs are the top three outlook concerns for the service sector.

Construction and real estate

Home sales rose during the reporting period. Some contacts noted that sales so far this year were ahead of plan. Builders' margins strengthened and backlogs increased. Outlooks were positive, though affordability remained a key concern.

Commercial real estate market conditions were little changed from the previous reporting period. Apartment leasing was moderate, but there continued to be downward pressure on occupancy and rents, and concessions were becoming more widespread. In the office market, leasing activity stayed sluggish, and vacancy was high. Industrial demand was solid, though vacancy continued to rise due to an elevated level of supply. Outlooks were mixed, with some commercial market segments expected to remain challenging either due to weak demand or the sizeable amount of new construction slated for delivery in the near term.

Financial services

Loan volumes declined after having largely stabilized over the past three months. Credit standards continued to tighten, and loan pricing continued to rise. While the pace of credit tightening picked-up for commercial and industrial loans and commercial mortgages, it slowed for residential mortgages and consumer loans. Overall loan nonperformance rose slightly, with commercial real estate experiencing a significant increase in past-due loans. Bankers' outlooks remained mixed: they expect an increase in loan demand six months from now but a deterioration in loan performance and overall business activity.

Energy

Oilfield activity was flat over the reporting period. Contacts expect oil prices to orbit $80 per barrel for the remainder of the year, well above breakeven levels, and oil production growth to slow. Meanwhile, natural gas pricing is expected to remain "below cost" barring any severe weather-driven demand. As a result, contacts noted reduced activity and decreased capital investment in natural gas.

Agriculture

Drought conditions remained prevalent in West Texas and southern New Mexico, while the rest of the District received ample rainfall over the reporting period. Texas experienced the largest wildfire in state history, burning over a million acres in the Texas Panhandle in late February and early March. Several thousand cattle were lost, and the fire destroyed infrastructure and pastures used for grazing. An illness recently identified as avian influenza has been afflicting chickens and dairy cows in the Texas Panhandle, leading to lower milk production. The extent of the impact to dairy product supply, if any, is unknown at this point, but contacts noted that there is not a food safety issue. More cotton acres are expected this year as prices are relatively strong compared with corn and sorghum prices, which are at three-year lows. Contacts were optimistic about crop production prospects this year. On the livestock side, cattle prices pushed to record highs and beef demand has held up well.

Community perspectives

Nonprofits reported sustained high demand for services as more individuals discover the resources they offer. While demand for food pantry services was stable at an elevated level, there was an increased demand for assistance with health insurance and basic clothing. Cost-of-living was an ongoing concern, and more people were looking for second jobs to make ends meet. The tax season provided low-income families with a temporary income boost with many planning to spend tax refunds on used cars, household appliances, and cell phones.