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Vistas from Texas: An Economic Outlook

August 07, 2015 Houston

Texas’ outsized growth since the recession has been supported by a booming energy sector, strong exports and longer-term factors such as low costs of living and doing business. However, the sharp fall in oil prices, a strong dollar and slowing growth in Asia and Europe loom over the state’s prospects this year. How will Texas and its diverse regions respond?

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Agenda

8 a.m.

Check-in and Continental Breakfast

9 a.m.

Welcome Remarks

 

Pia M. Orrenius
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Daron Peschel
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch

9:15 a.m.

Session 1: Economic Outlooks
Speakers will give an overview of recent developments in the global economy, with a particular focus on Greece, the euro area and China and potential implications for the U.S. They also will discuss developments in the U.S. and their impact on the nation’s economic outlook and examine the Texas economy, which has been slowed by a sharp drop in oil prices and a strong dollar.

 

International
Mark A. Wynne

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

 

United States
Anthony Murphy

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

 

Texas
Keith R. Phillips

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, San Antonio Branch

10:30 a.m.

Break

10:45 a.m.

Session 2: Regional Focus
Speakers will focus on economic trends in the major regions within Texas. Presentations will detail challenges and opportunities unique to each area. Highlights will include the effects of low oil prices, the impact of Mexico and the maquiladora industry, and factors contributing to growth in the major metros.

 

South Texas
Keith R. Phillips

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, San Antonio Branch

 

Gulf Coast
Jesse Thompson

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch

 

West Texas
Roberto A. Coronado

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch

 

North Texas
Laila Assanie

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Noon

Lunch

 

Plunging Crude Prices: Impact on the U.S. and State Economies
This presentation will address reasons for the low-oil-price environment, what low oil prices mean for the national and state economies, and expectations for future oil demand growth and prices.
Mine K. Yücel

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

1 p.m.

Session 3: Houston—Energy and Trade Hub
Speakers will assess the impact of trade, energy and human capital on the Houston region’s economy and discuss challenges as well as the potential for growth.

 

Challenges and Opportunities for the Port of Houston
Capt. Bill Diehl
(retired)
Greater Houston Port Bureau

 

Houston as the World Capital of Energy Production
Robert W. (Bill) Gilmer

Bauer College of Business, University of Houston

 

Human Capital and Long-Term Growth in Houston
Carolyn Watson

JPMorgan Chase

2:15 p.m.

Closing Remarks

 

Jesus Cañas
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Speakers

Laila Assanie
Business Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Assanie is a business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. As a member of the Research Department’s regional group, she conducts research on regional economic issues, produces articles for various bank publications and contributes to the Dallas Fed’s website. Additional responsibilities include briefing the Dallas Fed’s president on regional economic conditions, coordinating the production of various economic updates for the Dallas Fed website and writing the Eleventh District Beige Book—the Bank’s survey of regional economic conditions. Assanie holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from Northwestern University and a master’s in economics and finance from the London School of Economics.

Jesus Cañas
Business Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Cañas is a business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. As a member of the regional group, he analyzes the regional economy. His research at the Dallas Fed also focuses on issues pertaining to the Mexican economy, the U.S.–Mexico border economy and the maquiladora industry. In addition, he coordinates production of the Dallas Fed’s Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey, which analyzes economic conditions in the service sector, including retail. Cañas has written articles for various Federal Reserve publications and academic journals such as Annals of Regional Science and Growth and Change. Cañas holds an MS in economics from the University of Texas at El Paso.

Roberto A. Coronado
Assistant Vice President in Charge and Senior Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch
Coronado is assistant vice president in charge and senior economist at the El Paso Branch of the Dallas Fed. In this capacity, he serves as lead officer and regional economist for West Texas and southern New Mexico. Coronado works closely with the branch’s board of directors and provides leadership and oversight for the operating and administrative functions of the El Paso office. He oversees the branch’s outreach activities through publications, presentations and speeches, public conferences and economic education. His research focuses on issues pertaining to the Mexican economy, the U.S.–Mexico border economy and the maquiladora industry. Coronado has written articles for Federal Reserve publications and academic journals in both the U.S. and Mexico. Coronado serves as president of the Rio Grande Economics Association and the El Paso chapter of the National Association for Business Economics. He is also a clinical assistant professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, where he teaches in the executive MBA program. Coronado obtained his PhD in economics from the University of Houston and holds a BBA in accounting and economics and an MS in economics from UTEP.

Capt. William J. Diehl (retired)
President
Greater Houston Port Bureau
Diehl, a retired U.S. Coast Guard captain, is the president of the Greater Houston Port Bureau, a maritime trade organization representing almost 200 member companies doing business along the Houston ship channel. He previously served as a Coast Guard officer for 27 years in a number of key assignments, including senior U.S. diplomat at the Panama Canal, where he advised the canal administrator on issues involving U.S. government agencies and policies. He finished his Coast Guard career as the commanding officer of the Coast Guard’s largest operational command, Sector Houston–Galveston. In 2009, Diehl joined the Greater Houston Port Bureau, leading the organization that has focused on bringing business to Houston since 1929.The Port Bureau supplies its members detailed vessel traffic information for all Texas ports. It also addresses infrastructure, regulatory and commercial issues affecting member companies, including representing Port Bureau members, the Houston Ship Channel Security District and the Greater Houston Coffee Association in front of state and federal legislators. He serves on the board of the Houston International Seafarers’ Center and the Texas Southern University Maritime Industry Advisory Board. Diehl earned a master’s degree from the University of Michigan in naval architecture, marine engineering and mechanical engineering. He is a registered professional engineer in the state of Virginia.

Robert W. (Bill) Gilmer
Director, Institute for Regional Forecasting
University of Houston
Gilmer is director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston’s Bauer College of Business. The institute monitors the Gulf Coast business cycle, including the influence of the national economy, energy and global expansion on Houston-area growth. Before joining the institute, Gilmer served as a senior economist and vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for 23 years, including as officer in charge of the El Paso Branch from 2003 to 2012. Gilmer’s work, focusing on energy markets, regional growth and the Texas economy, has been recognized by publications such as the Wall Street Journal, The Economist and Forbes. Prior positions include principal economic forecaster at the Tennessee Valley Authority and research economist at the Institute for Energy Analysis in Oak Ridge,Tenn. Gilmer earned a BA in economics from the University of Texas at El Paso and an MA and PhD in economics from the University of Texas.

Anthony Murphy
Senior Research Economist and Policy Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Murphy is a policy advisor and senior economist in the macroeconomics group of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. He joined the Dallas Fed in 2010 from the University of Oxford. He is an applied econometrician with research interests in housing markets, savings and consumption, labor economics and finance. His current research focuses on the boom, bust and slow recovery of the housing market, wealth effects on consumer spending and the contribution of liquidity mismatch to bank failures and distress. His articles have appeared in the Economic Journal, Financial Analysts Journal, Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of Financial Stability and Oxford Review of Economic Policy, among others. Murphy obtained a BA from Trinity College Dublin, an MSc from the London School of Economics and a DPhil from the University of Oxford.

Pia M. Orrenius
Vice President and Senior Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Orrenius, vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, studies regional economic growth and demographic change. She manages the regional group in the Research Department of the Dallas Fed and is executive editor of the Dallas Fed publication Southwest Economy. Her academic research focuses on the labor market impacts of immigration, unauthorized immigration and U.S. immigration policy. She is coauthor of the book Beside the Golden Door: U.S. Immigration Reform in a New Era of Globalization. Orrenius is a research fellow at the John G.Tower Center for Political Studies at Southern Methodist University and at the Institute for the Study of Labor in Bonn, Germany, an adjunct scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and an adjunct professor at Baylor University (Dallas campus) in the executive MBA program. She earned a PhD in economics from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Daron Peschel
Senior Vice President in Charge
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch
Peschel was named senior vice president in charge of the Houston Branch in 2014 and is responsible for the Bank’s operations in the 41 counties that compose the Houston/Gulf Coast region. He joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in 1989. Peschel has also served as a management intern and in numerous analytical and managerial roles, including operations officer and principal team member and financial officer for the new Houston Branch building. He was also on special assignment at the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors. Peschel, who is a graduate of Leadership Houston Class XXVII and the Center for Houston’s Future, earned a BBA in finance from the University of Texas and an MBA in banking and financial institutions from Sam Houston State University.

Keith R. Phillips
Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, San Antonio Branch
Phillips joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in January 1984. His areas of concentration include regional economics and economic forecasting. Phillips developed business-cycle indexes for Texas and its major metro areas, which he uses to analyze business conditions in those regions. He is a contributing member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecasting Group, where he has been the most accurate Texas forecaster for nine out of the past 16 years. His research and analysis have been covered in media such as BusinessWeek, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and in media throughout Texas. In 1996, Phillips moved to the San Antonio Branch to enhance the Dallas Fed’s regional economic coverage in South Texas. He teaches courses in econometrics and forecasting at Trinity University, the University of the Incarnate Word and St. Mary’s University. He also teaches courses in managerial economics in the executive MBA program at the University of Texas at San Antonio. Phillips holds a BA and an MA in economics and a bachelor’s in journalism from the University of Missouri at Columbia and a PhD in economics from Southern Methodist University.

Jesse Thompson
Business Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch
Thompson serves as business economist at the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Thompson, who joined the Bank in 2010, performs research and analysis on issues affecting the Houston and Gulf Coast economy. In particular, he studies issues surrounding area hydrocarbon industries. He also collects information for the Dallas Fed’s Beige Book summary of current economic conditions. He is author of the monthly Houston Economic Indicators report and contributes to the quarterly publication Southwest Economy. Thompson earned an MA in economics, with emphasis on empirical microeconomics, and a BA in philosophy and economics from the University of Houston.

Carolyn Watson
Vice President, Corporate Responsibility
JPMorgan Chase
Watson is vice president of corporate responsibility at JPMorgan Chase, where she directs the JPMorgan Chase Foundation’s philanthropic investments for Houston and San Antonio. The approach of each high-impact investment is to leverage the company’s strength and the dedication of its talented employees to tackle pressing social and economic challenges. While at Chase, Watson has led the development of a $5 million, five-year workforce investment strategy to address Houston’s acute training and education gaps. She served on the Greater Houston Partnership’s Regional Workforce Development Task Force and its successor, the UpSkill Houston Cabinet. In 2014, JPMorgan Chase received recognition as the Large Outstanding Corporation of the Year from the Association of Fundraising Professionals of Houston for its innovative approach to philanthropy. Watson earned a BA from Louisiana State University, a master’s degree in public affairs from the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas and a master’s degree in management from Stanford University's Graduate School of Business.

Mark A. Wynne
Vice President, Associate Director of Research and Director of the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
In his role at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Wynne is responsible for developing and leading the Bank’s research program on globalization and understanding its implications for the conduct of U.S. monetary policy. Since joining the Dallas Fed in 1989, Wynne has had a variety of responsibilities, including briefing the Bank’s president on national and international economic conditions prior to meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, providing updates on key economic issues to the Bank’s board of directors and conducting research on such topics as the effects of fiscal policy, understanding business cycles, inflation measurement and the working of monetary unions. His research has appeared in academic journals and Federal Reserve publications. Wynne has taught at the undergraduate and graduate levels at University College Dublin, the University of Rochester and Southern Methodist University and has also served as a faculty member for the American Bankers Association Stonier Graduate School of Banking. He holds a BA and an MA from the National University of Ireland and an MA and a PhD in economics from the University of Rochester.

Mine K. Yücel
Senior Vice President and Director of Research
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Yücel is senior vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She has been with the Bank since 1989. Yücel is an adviser to the Dallas Fed president on regional and energy issues and has published numerous articles on energy and regional growth. She has served in leadership roles in economic and energy organizations and is on the board of directors of the National Association for Business Economics. Before joining the Dallas Fed, she was an assistant professor of economics at Louisiana State University. She has a PhD in economics from Rice University.