Global Institute working papers

Working papers from the Global Institute provide critical insights on trade, immigration, and other major international issues, along with in-depth analysis of monetary policy challenges affecting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic ties with Mexico.

Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
To determine the impact of the postpandemic U.S. immigration surge, the authors first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. They then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity.
October 01, 2024
Working Paper
The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
September 25, 2024
Working Paper
Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.
August 05, 2024
Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
This paper characterizes optimal climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households and non-homothetic preferences. The authors focus on constrained efficiency, where the planner is restricted from transferring resources across households.
July 16, 2024
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth
This paper builds a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China’s economic growth in the past five decades.
February 07, 2024
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Offshore Dollar Funding Shocks and the Dollar Exchange Rate
This paper proposes a model with limited CIP and UIP arbitrage where the CIP deviation and exchange rate are jointly determined by equilibrium in the swap and spot FX markets.
December 15, 2023