Global Institute working papers

 

• Working Paper

  The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis

  This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.

  April 07, 2026

• Working Paper

  Multinationals and Structural Transformation

  Using confidential microdata from Japan and exploiting a quasi-exogenous reform that expanded foreign investment opportunities in China, this paper assesses empirically how this reform affected employment at firms in both the host country (China) and the home country (Japan).

  March 30, 2026

• Working Paper

  Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development

  This paper documents evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase.

  November 03, 2025

• Working Paper

  Household Consumption and Savings over the Life Cycle: The Roles of Demographics and Durables

  This paper provides a novel, developing country perspective by analyzing patterns of life-cycle consumption, income and savings rates in India.

  October 14, 2025

• Working Paper

  Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience

  This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.

  September 19, 2025

• Working Paper

  Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-U.S. Global Banks

  Global non-U.S. banks have significant dollar exposure both on and off their balance sheet. This paper develops a model to analyze their adjustment to dollar funding shocks, whether from reduced direct lending or external dollar shortages.

  August 12, 2025

• Working Paper

  A History of U.S. Tariffs: Quantifying Strategic Trade-Offs in Tariff Policy Design

  U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals—revenue, protection and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, this paper illustrates these trade-offs through the lens of tariff Laffer curves.

  August 05, 2025

• Working Paper

  The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows

  This paper studies empirically and theoretically the effects of international financial flows on resource allocation.

  August 01, 2025

• Working Paper

  Analysis of Multiple Long-Run Relations in Panel Data Models

  This paper proposes a novel methodology that filters out the short-run dynamics using sub-sample time averages as deviations from their full-sample counterpart, and estimates the number of long-run relations and their coefficients using eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the pooled covariance matrix of these sub-sample deviations.

  June 05, 2025

• Working Paper

  Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance

  This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.

  May 21, 2025