Global Institute working papers

 

• Working Paper

  xtcipsunb: The CIPS Panel Unit Root Test for Unbalanced Panel Data

  This paper develops and demonstrates the command xtcipsunb, which implements the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test (CIPS) from Pesaran (2007) and Pesaran, Smith and Yamagata (2013) for unbalanced panels.

  July 07, 2026

• Working Paper

  How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy

  The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.

  June 23, 2026

• Working Paper

  The Interest Rate Effect of Government Debt and Deficits: Does Domestic Borrowing Have a Different Impact Than Foreign Borrowing?

  This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and interest rates in advanced economies.

  June 22, 2026

• Working Paper

  The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis

  This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.

  April 07, 2026

• Working Paper

  Multinationals and Structural Transformation

  Using confidential microdata from Japan and exploiting a quasi-exogenous reform that expanded foreign investment opportunities in China, this paper assesses empirically how this reform affected employment at firms in both the host country (China) and the home country (Japan).

  March 30, 2026

• Working Paper

  Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development

  This paper documents evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase.

  November 03, 2025

• Working Paper

  Household Consumption and Savings over the Life Cycle: The Roles of Demographics and Durables

  This paper provides a novel developing-country perspective by analyzing patterns of life-cycle consumption, income and savings rates in India.

  October 14, 2025

• Working Paper

  Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience

  This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses.

  September 19, 2025

• Working Paper

  Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-U.S. Global Banks

  Global non-U.S. banks have significant dollar exposure both on and off their balance sheet. This paper develops a model to analyze their adjustment to dollar funding shocks, whether from reduced direct lending or external dollar shortages.

  August 12, 2025

• Working Paper

  A History of U.S. Tariffs: Quantifying Strategic Trade-Offs in Tariff Policy Design

  U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals—revenue, protection and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, this paper illustrates these trade-offs through the lens of tariff Laffer curves.

  August 05, 2025