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Surveys

Special Questions

Texas Business Outlook Surveys
January 25, 2021

Special Questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on the impacts of COVID-19, as well as the new Paycheck Protection Program. Results below include responses from participants of all three surveys: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey.

Texas Business Outlook Surveys

Data were collected January 12–20, and 387 Texas business executives responded to the surveys.

1. How do your firm’s current revenues compare with a typical January? For example, if revenues are down 20 percent from normal, enter 80 percent. If revenues are up 20 percent, enter 120 percent.
  Jul. '20
(percent)
Sept. '20
(percent)
Nov. '20
(percent)
Jan. '21
(percent)
Share of firms reporting reduced revenues 74.2 62.0 63.7 60.3
Average revenue decline (Y/Y) -29.1 -31.3 -28.7 -25.4
Share of firms reporting increased revenues 15.5 21.0 19.9 20.0
Average revenue increase (Y/Y) 23.3 20.6 17.7 15.9
Share of firms reporting no change in revenues 10.3 17.0 16.4 19.7

NOTES: 370 responses. In past months the question wording was adjusted to reference the respective month of comparison. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted. Average revenue decline is calculated using only responses from firms that reported reduced revenues. Average revenue increase is calculated using only responses from firms that reported increased revenues.

Downloadable chart | Chart data

2. How does your firm’s current employee head count compare with February 2020 (pre-COVID)? For example, if head count is down 20 percent from February, enter 80 percent. If head count is up 20 percent, enter 120 percent. Please exclude any changes due to typical seasonality.
  Jul. '20
(percent)
Sept. '20
(percent)
Nov. '20
(percent)
Jan. '21
(percent)
Share of firms reporting reduced head count 51.2 49.2 51.1 48.1
Average head count decline (compared with Feb. 2020 levels) -25.4 -30.6 -28.4 -25.4
Share of firms reporting increased head count 14.0 17.5 13.2 19.8
Average head count increase (compared with Feb. 2020 levels) 15.6 14.8 15.2 10.9
Share of firms reporting no change in head count 34.8 33.3 35.7 32.1

NOTES: 374 responses. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted. Average head count decline is calculated using only responses from firms that reported reduced head count. Average head count increase is calculated using only responses from firms that reported increased head count.

Downloadable chart | Chart data

3. Have you applied, or are you planning to apply, for a loan under the new round of PPP (Paycheck Protection Program) authorized under the stimulus package signed into law in December?
  Jan. '21
(percent)
Yes 30.7
No 69.3

NOTE: 375 responses.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to provide comments. These comments can be found on the individual survey Special Questions results pages, accessible by the tabs above.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected January 12–20, and 111 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

1. How do your firm’s current revenues compare with a typical January? For example, if revenues are down 20 percent from normal, enter 80 percent. If revenues are up 20 percent, enter 120 percent.
  Jul. '20
(percent)
Sept. '20
(percent)
Nov. '20
(percent)
Jan. '21
(percent)
Share of firms reporting reduced revenues 73.8 60.8 57.7 56.1
Average revenue decline (Y/Y) -30.5 -28.9 -30.7 -22.2
Share of firms reporting increased revenues 19.4 23.5 29.8 27.1
Average revenue increase (Y/Y) 27.3 22.5 19.3 15.9
Share of firms reporting no change in revenues 6.8 15.7 12.5 16.8

NOTES: 107 responses. In past months the question wording was adjusted to reference the respective month of comparison. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted. Average revenue decline is calculated using only responses from firms that reported reduced revenues. Average revenue increase is calculated using only responses from firms that reported increased revenues.

Downloadable chart | Chart data

2. How does your firm’s current employee head count compare with February 2020 (pre-COVID)? For example, if head count is down 20 percent from February, enter 80 percent. If head count is up 20 percent, enter 120 percent. Please exclude any changes due to typical seasonality.
  Jul. '20
(percent)
Sept. '20
(percent)
Nov. '20
(percent)
Jan. '21
(percent)
Share of firms reporting reduced head count 52.5 43.6 49.0 45.0
Average head count decline (compared with Feb. 2020 levels) -23.0 -22.9 -24.5 -23.1
Share of firms reporting increased head count 21.2 16.8 17.3 28.4
Average head count increase (compared with Feb. 2020 levels) 22.5 13.1 22.0 9.9
Share of firms reporting no change in head count 26.3 39.6 33.7 26.6

NOTES: 109 responses. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted. Average head count decline is calculated using only responses from firms that reported reduced head count. Average head count increase is calculated using only responses from firms that reported increased head count.

Downloadable chart | Chart data

3. Have you applied, or are you planning to apply, for a loan under the new round of PPP (Paycheck Protection Program) authorized under the stimulus package signed into law in December?
  Jan. '21
(percent)
Yes 32.4
No 67.6

NOTE: 108 responses.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

Chemical Manufacturing
  • We are working on PPP 2; we have more employees but lower volume due to a major change in the mix of business. We are working harder to make less money.
Plastics and Rubber Product Manufacturing
  • It is disappointing—having been a business involved in the first round of PPP loans—that a decision on loan forgiveness for our company wasn’t made by the end of the year.
  • Our overall view of the market has improved. While it isn’t expected to see pre-COVID levels of production, we do expect to see some growth this year as opposed to previous “flat” expectations.
Nonmetallic Metal Product Manufacturing
  • Uncertainty over federal highway spending is the biggest factor [for our outlook], and reduced demand for oil and gas due to COVID-19 lockdowns continues to affect capital spending in our markets.
Primary Metal Manufacturing
  • We are too big (successful) to qualify for PPP.
Fabricated Metal Manufacturing
  • Our sales were off 40 percent from May through July. They started improving from August until October, when they were close to our historical average. However, November and December were off 30 percent. We will be applying for the PPP 2 loan so that we can keep everyone employed.
  • The change in consumer spending patterns has continued away from entertainment and travel expenses and toward home and real property improvements. This has been the COVID response of the consumer that is not adversely affected by the government’s response to COVID.
Machinery Manufacturing
  • We do not yet know if we are eligible for PPP.
  • Our answer to question 1a is a result of the current political situation, not COVID. Our main competitor is China, and the new administration seems to favor China over U.S. industry.
  • The stock market rebound has been amazing. And we have benefited from smart investments that have paid off wildly. If this continues, then we will be debt free within six months. However, this is not how we would prefer to see our financial success occur.
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
  • We are considering applying for the second round of PPP, but we are determining our qualifications prior to submitting any applications.
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
  • We are currently going over financials and the guidelines to see if we qualify for the new round of PPP.
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
  • The new round of PPP is more restrictive, and we are unsure at this point if we would qualify for the program.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected January 12–20, and 276 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

1. How do your firm’s current revenues compare with a typical January? For example, if revenues are down 20 percent from normal, enter 80 percent. If revenues are up 20 percent, enter 120 percent.
  Jul. '20
(percent)
Sept. '20
(percent)
Nov. '20
(percent)
Jan. '21
(percent)
Share of firms reporting reduced revenues 74.4 62.5 66.0 62.0
Average revenue decline (Y/Y) -28.7 -32.5 -28.1 -27.0
Share of firms reporting increased revenues 14.1 20.1 16.0 17.1
Average revenue increase (Y/Y) 23.1 19.7 16.4 17.2
Share of firms reporting no change in revenues 11.6 17.5 17.9 20.9

NOTES: 263 responses. In past months the question wording was adjusted to reference the respective month of comparison. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted. Average revenue decline is calculated using only responses from firms that reported reduced revenues. Average revenue increase is calculated using only responses from firms that reported increased revenues.

Downloadable chart | Chart data

2. How does your firm’s current employee head count compare with February 2020 (pre-COVID)? For example, if head count is down 20 percent from February, enter 80 percent. If head count is up 20 percent, enter 120 percent. Please exclude any changes due to typical seasonality.
  Jul. '20
(percent)
Sept. '20
(percent)
Nov. '20
(percent)
Jan. '21
(percent)
Share of firms reporting reduced head count 50.7 51.3 51.9 49.4
Average head count decline (compared with Feb. 2020 levels) -26.7 -33.1 -30.4 -26.8
Share of firms reporting increased head count 11.4 17.7 11.7 16.2
Average head count increase (compared with Feb. 2020 levels) 13.4 15.4 11.1 11.6
Share of firms reporting no change in head count 37.9 31.0 36.5 34.3

NOTES: 265 responses. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted. Average head count decline is calculated using only responses from firms that reported reduced head count. Average head count increase is calculated using only responses from firms that reported increased head count.

Downloadable chart | Chart data

3. Have you applied, or are you planning to apply, for a loan under the new round of PPP (Paycheck Protection Program) authorized under the stimulus package signed into law in December?
  Jan. '21
(percent)
Yes 30.0
No 70.0

NOTE: 267 responses.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

Truck Transportation
  • Our firm's revenue has been at or exceeded previous revenue throughout 2020. We have just closed our best year in 34 years of business. The "how" of that is a phenomenal story of leadership, team, brand, effort in the face of an enemy called COVID and a battle called NOW.
Credit Intermediation and Related Activities
  • Given the nature of our industry, a PPP [Paycheck Protection Program] loan would be viewed unfavorably by the media and far left.
  • [As a banking sector firm,] PPP is not applicable to us.
Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities
  • We see property tax, insurance and other nonessential increases.
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
  • Hiring is tight; we increased our entry-level wage to $15 to keep up with others offering that as a base.
Real Estate
  • PPP funding has been critical for our restaurant and the travel-related and entertainment-related tenants, but we are hoping it arrives in time to keep them viable.
Rental and Leasing Services
  • We didn't qualify for the PPP the first time and are sure we won't the second time but are sure we'll get to pay all that "government help" back!
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
  • After applying for a PPP loan in the first round and having the amount of the loan excessively dictated to me by PPP, then trying to lower it (which was eventually done to a degree), then trying to lower it to the original amount needed and getting no response, I gave up. At this point, the supplemental unemployment for contract workers has proved to be more reliable (sort of) and much less hassle. So, no, I will not apply for another PPP loan.
  • Business is stabilized by the last PPP loan we received. The SBA [Small Business Administration] did  excellent and quick work helping us and many businesses. The business climate is improving, especially in the U.S., and we will stabilize and grow our business past COVID-level revenues in 2021. We will, however, miss President Trump's pro-business policies and actions.
Management of Companies and Enterprises
  • Technology and branch realignment are the reasons the head count will not return to pre-COVID levels. Banks aren't eligible for PPP.
  • PPP needs to backstop ventures started in 2020. If there isn’t a comparison year, a small business building revenue should be eligible.
Administrative and Support Services
  • One issue at a time please! COVID, new administration, run on the Capitol, intense hacking of systems, Chinese and Russian threats ... geez.  I do feel optimistic that we will see normalization of our operations by mid-to-late 2021.
  • The delay in government assistance is impeding our recovery and perception of an end to this nightmare.
  • We are concerned that our company is big enough to be included in the new president's agenda on taxing business but is so close to the smallest in that group that we will get hurt and not be able to continue. We are in that exact situation with the ACA [Affordable Care Act] right now. We cannot increase our pricing, be competitive and continue to sustain our business.
  • We're just now eligible for PPP (which is the only thing for which we are eligible), but as a government agency in Texas, the hoops (and expenses associated with those) we are going to have to jump through may not be worth it. I'll admit I hadn't paid enough attention before on the details/nuance and just saw the $2 million cap, which would have been significant and meaningful. But when you get into the details of 2.5X average MONTHLY payroll (monthly being the key word I'd missed in previous glances) of salaries up to $100,000, it's better than nothing to some extent, but it really doesn't add up to much; I'm having to weigh the costs of pursuing better than nothing versus just leaving it as is.
Ambulatory Health Care Services
  • There are too many delays in the program. At this point, [we need a] forgiveness assessment.
Social Assistance
  • We are hiring. Many others are as well. We just need candidates.
Accommodation
  • We have implemented wage increases as a result of California’s and Florida’s minimum-wage increases. Input cost increases are a result of COVID-related changes at hotels, including increased cleaning supplies, personal protective equipment and increased guest supplies.
Food Services and Drinking Places
  • It’s tough to hire help. We are over 1,000 employees short and can’t open our dining rooms due to the help shortage.
  • Uncertainty is increasing.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Data were collected January 12–20, and 52 Texas retailers responded to the survey.

1. How do your firm’s current revenues compare with a typical January? For example, if revenues are down 20 percent from normal, enter 80 percent. If revenues are up 20 percent, enter 120 percent.
  Jul. '20
(percent)
Sept. '20
(percent)
Nov. '20
(percent)
Jan. '21
(percent)
Share of firms reporting reduced revenues 76.0 58.5 66.7 64.0
Average revenue decline (Y/Y) -21.1 -28.5 -23.1 -22.1
Share of firms reporting increased revenues 18.0 22.6 20.8 22.0
Average revenue increase (Y/Y) 20.7 22.0 30.3 24.5
Share of firms reporting no change in revenues 6.0 18.9 12.5 14.0

NOTES: 50 responses. In past months the question wording was adjusted to reference the respective month of comparison. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted. Average revenue decline is calculated using only responses from firms that reported reduced revenues. Average revenue increase is calculated using only responses from firms that reported increased revenues.

Downloadable chart | Chart data

2. How does your firm’s current employee head count compare with February 2020 (pre-COVID)? For example, if head count is down 20 percent from February, enter 80 percent. If head count is up 20 percent, enter 120 percent. Please exclude any changes due to typical seasonality.
  Jul. '20
(percent)
Sept. '20
(percent)
Nov. '20
(percent)
Jan. '21
(percent)
Share of firms reporting reduced head count 52.0 53.7 46.9 38.0
Average head count decline (compared with Feb. 2020 levels) -17.4 -31.2 -25.6 -26.7
Share of firms reporting increased head count 4.0 7.4 12.2 20.0
Average head count increase (compared with Feb. 2020 levels) 42.5 18.8 8.7 8.0
Share of firms reporting no change in head count 44.0 38.9 40.8 42.0

NOTES: 50 responses. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted. Average head count decline is calculated using only responses from firms that reported reduced head count. Average head count increase is calculated using only responses from firms that reported increased head count.

Downloadable chart | Chart data

3. Have you applied, or are you planning to apply, for a loan under the new round of PPP (Paycheck Protection Program) authorized under the stimulus package signed into law in December?
  Jan. '21
(percent)
Yes 20.0
No 80.0

NOTE: 50 responses.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
  • We had a decent 2020 so don't qualify for the new round of PPP, but now is when we are starting to see the pain of COVID. 
Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods
  • We have become more efficient over the last six to nine months and realized that our productivity has stayed the same with fewer employees. Staggering hours and opening for less hours has kept our profitability in line with pre-COVID profits. If sales at the retail level move higher, then we will add bodies, but as of now, wages and input prices are both moving higher.
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
  • [There is] Uncertainty associated with trying to run a business in today's environment. Initial PPP response to forgiveness is unknown? [There are] Administrative issues due to numerous changes and policy decisions.

Questions regarding the Texas Business Outlook Surveys can be addressed to Emily Kerr at emily.kerr@dal.frb.org.

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