Surveys

Special Questions

April 29, 2024

Special Questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on artificial intelligence (AI). Results below include responses from participants of all three surveys: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey.

Texas Business Outlook Surveys

Data were collected April 16–24, and 363 Texas business executives responded to the surveys.

Artificial intelligence, or AI, is technology that enables computers and machines to simulate human intelligence and problem-solving capabilities. Traditional AI relies on explicit programming to execute specific tasks. Examples include search algorithms and recommendations or predictions based on past trends. These AI programs have been trained to follow given rules and perform tasks, but they don’t create anything new. Generative AI is distinct from traditional AI in that it autonomously generates new content. Examples include written content creation such as ChatGPT, question-answering such as sales or customer service chatbots, and enhanced code or software development.

1. Is your firm currently using AI?

	April '24 (percent)
Yes, traditional AI	12.6
Yes, generative AI	5.6
Yes, both traditional and generative AI	14.0
Yes, but don’t know which type	6.1
No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months	16.5
No, and we have no plans to do so in the near future	37.2
Don’t know	8.1

NOTES: 358 responses.

2. How is your firm using or planning to use AI? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
Marketing/advertising	50.3
Business analysis/predictive analytics	45.1
Process automation	43.1
Customer service	39.0
Cybersecurity/fraud detection	22.1
Accounting	19.5
Supply-chain optimization	12.8
Quality control	11.3
Other	14.9

NOTES: 195 responses. This question was only posed to respondents who said in question 1 they currently use AI or are planning to use it in the next 12 months. Respondents selecting "Other" were asked to explain, and the most common uses cited were recruitment and research and development.

3. On net, how has the use of AI affected employment at your firm, or how do you expect it to?

	April '24 (percent)
	Firms using AI	Firms planning to use AI	Combined
Increase(d) our need for workers	2.2	5.2	3.1
Decrease(d) our need for workers	9.0	15.5	10.9
Change(d) the type of workers we need but not the number	14.2	12.1	13.5
Did not/will not impact our need for workers	66.4	48.3	60.9
Don’t know	8.2	19.0	11.5
Number of responses	134	58	192

NOTES: Respondents selecting any version of "Yes" in question 1 were asked, "On net, how has the use of AI affected employment at your firm?" and response choices were in past tense. Respondents selecting, "No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months" in question 1 were asked, "On net, how do you expect the use of AI to affect employment at your firm?" and response choices were in future tense. Results are displayed separately as well as combined.

3a. Please indicate the change (or expected change) in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI.

Firms using AI	April '24
	Increased (percent)	Decreased (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	6.5	48.4	38.7	6.5
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	25.8	32.3	32.3	9.7
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	42.4	3.0	45.5	9.1

Firms planning to use AI	April '24
	Increase (percent)	Decrease (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	11.8	35.3	41.2	11.8
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	23.5	41.2	23.5	11.8
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	50.0	16.7	11.1	22.2

Combined	April '24
	Increase(d) (percent)	Decrease(d) (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	8.3	43.8	39.6	8.3
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	25.0	35.4	29.2	10.4
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	45.1	7.8	33.3	13.7

NOTES: 51 responses. This question was only posed to respondents selecting one of the first three answer choices in question 3. Respondents selecting any version of "Yes" in question 1 were asked to indicate the change in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI. Respondents selecting, "No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months" in question 1 were asked to indicate the expected change in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI. Results are displayed separately as well as combined.

4. What benefits has your firm experienced or does your firm expect to experience from using AI? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
	Firms using AI	Firms planning to use AI	Combined
Increase(d) productivity	61.4	61.7	61.5
Access to better and/or more timely information	50.0	53.3	51.0
Reduction in costs	26.5	46.7	32.8
Improvement in customer relationships	23.5	50.0	31.8
Increase(d) revenue/sales	11.4	26.7	16.1
Other	13.6	0.0	9.4
Number of responses	132	60	192

NOTES: Respondents selecting any version of "Yes" in question 1 were asked, "What benefits has your firm experienced from using AI?" and response choices were in past tense. Respondents selecting, "No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months" were asked, "What benefits does your firm expect to experience from using AI?" and response choices were in future tense. Results are displayed separately as well as combined. Respondents selecting "Other" were asked to explain, and roughly one-third of them noted that it was too soon to tell or that they had not seen any benefit so far.

5. What concerns do you have regarding the use of AI, if any? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
Misinformation	60.1
Privacy	44.9
Social surveillance and/or manipulation	36.8
Bias and/or discrimination	24.4
Difficulty hiring workers with AI skills	20.5
Workforce reduction/layoffs	9.0
Other	7.6
No concerns	18.3

NOTES: 356 responses.

Survey respondents were given the opportunity to also provide comments, which can be found in the Comments tab above.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected April 16–24 and 86 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

1. Is your firm currently using AI?

	April '24 (percent)
Yes, traditional AI	8.2
Yes, generative AI	3.5
Yes, both traditional and generative AI	10.6
Yes, but don’t know which type	5.9
No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months	15.3
No, and we have no plans to do so in the near future	47.1
Don’t know	9.4

NOTES: 85 responses.

2. How is your firm using or planning to use AI? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
Process automation	67.6
Business analysis/predictive analytics	62.2
Marketing/advertising	54.1
Customer service	40.5
Cybersecurity/fraud detection	35.1
Accounting	32.4
Supply-chain optimization	29.7
Quality control	13.5
Other	10.8

NOTES: 37 responses. This question was only posed to respondents who said in question 1 they currently use AI or are planning to use it in the next 12 months.

3. On net, how has the use of AI affected employment at your firm, or how do you expect it to?

	April '24 (percent)
	Firms using AI	Firms planning to use AI	Combined
Increase(d) our need for workers	4.2	0.0	2.7
Decrease(d) our need for workers	12.5	23.1	16.2
Change(d) the type of workers we need but not the number	12.5	15.4	13.5
Did not/will not impact our need for workers	58.3	38.5	51.4
Don’t know	12.5	23.1	16.2
Number of responses	24	13	37

3a. Please indicate the change (or expected change) in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI.

Firms using AI	April '24
	Increased (percent)	Decreased (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	0.0	28.6	71.4	0.0
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	28.6	28.6	42.9	0.0
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	28.6	0.0	71.4	0.0

Firms planning to use AI	April '24
	Increase (percent)	Decrease (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	25.0	25.0	50.0	0.0
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	25.0	50.0	25.0	0.0
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	40.0	20.0	20.0	20.0

Combined	April '24
	Increase(d) (percent)	Decrease(d) (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	9.1	27.3	63.6	0.0
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	27.3	36.4	36.4	0.0
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	33.3	8.3	50.0	8.3

NOTES: 12 responses. This question was only posed to respondents selecting one of the first three answer choices in question 3. Respondents selecting any version of "Yes" in question 1 were asked to indicate the change in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI. Respondents selecting, "No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months" in question 1 were asked to indicate the expected change in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI. Results are displayed separately as well as combined.

4. What benefits has your firm experienced or does your firm expect to experience from using AI? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
	Firms using AI	Firms planning to use AI	Combined
Access to better and/or more timely information	62.5	46.2	56.8
Increase(d) productivity	54.2	76.9	62.2
Reduction in costs	33.3	69.2	45.9
Improvement in customer relationships	12.5	61.5	29.7
Increase(d) revenue/sales	4.2	38.5	16.2
Other	12.5	0.0	8.1
Number of responses	24	13	37

5. What concerns do you have regarding the use of AI, if any? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
Misinformation	52.3
Privacy	43.0
Social surveillance and/or manipulation	34.9
Bias and/or discrimination	17.4
Difficulty hiring workers with AI skills	16.3
Workforce reduction/layoffs	8.1
Other	9.3
No concerns	20.9

NOTES: 86 responses.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected April 16–24 and 277 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

1. Is your firm currently using AI?

	April '24 (percent)
Yes, traditional AI	13.9
Yes, generative AI	6.2
Yes, both traditional and generative AI	15.0
Yes, but don’t know which type	6.2
No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months	16.8
No, and we have no plans to do so in the near future	34.1
Don’t know	7.7

NOTES: 273 responses.

2. How is your firm using or planning to use AI? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
Marketing/advertising	49.4
Business analysis/predictive analytics	41.1
Customer service	38.6
Process automation	37.3
Cybersecurity/fraud detection	19.0
Accounting	16.5
Quality control	10.8
Supply-chain optimization	8.9
Other	15.8

NOTES: 158 responses. This question was only posed to respondents who said in question 1 they currently use AI or are planning to use it in the next 12 months.

3. On net, how has the use of AI affected employment at your firm, or how do you expect it to?

	April '24 (percent)
	Firms using AI	Firms planning to use AI	Combined
Increase(d) our need for workers	1.8	6.7	3.2
Decrease(d) our need for workers	8.2	13.3	9.7
Change(d) the type of workers we need but not the number	14.5	11.1	13.5
Did not/will not impact our need for workers	68.2	51.1	63.2
Don’t know	7.3	17.8	10.3
Number of responses	110	45	155

3a. Please indicate the change (or expected change) in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI.

Firms using AI	April '24
	Increased (percent)	Decreased (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	8.3	54.2	29.2	8.3
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	25.0	33.3	29.2	12.5
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	46.2	3.8	38.5	11.5

Firms planning to use AI	April '24
	Increase (percent)	Decrease (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	7.7	38.5	38.5	15.4
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	23.1	38.5	23.1	15.4
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	53.8	15.4	7.7	23.1

Combined	April '24
	Increase(d) (percent)	Decrease(d) (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	8.1	48.6	32.4	10.8
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	24.3	35.1	27.0	13.5
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	48.7	7.7	28.2	15.4

NOTES: 39 responses. This question was only posed to respondents selecting one of the first three answer choices in question 3. Respondents selecting any version of "Yes" in question 1 were asked to indicate the change in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI. Respondents selecting, "No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months" in question 1 were asked to indicate the expected change in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI. Results are displayed separately as well as combined.

4. What benefits has your firm experienced or does your firm expect to experience from using AI? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
	Firms using AI	Firms planning to use AI	Combined
Increase(d) productivity	63.0	57.4	61.3
Access to better and/or more timely information	47.2	55.3	49.7
Improvement in customer relationships	25.9	46.8	32.3
Reduction in costs	25.0	40.4	29.7
Increase(d) revenue/sales	13.0	23.4	16.1
Other	13.9	0.0	9.7
Number of responses	108	47	155

5. What concerns do you have regarding the use of AI, if any? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
Misinformation	62.6
Privacy	45.6
Social surveillance and/or manipulation	37.4
Bias and/or discrimination	26.7
Difficulty hiring workers with AI skills	21.9
Workforce reduction/layoffs	9.3
Other	7.0
No concerns	17.4

NOTES: 270 responses.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Data were collected April 16–24 and 53 Texas retailers responded to the survey.

1. Is your firm currently using AI?

	April '24 (percent)
Yes, traditional AI	13.7
Yes, generative AI	7.8
Yes, both traditional and generative AI	9.8
Yes, but don’t know which type	2.0
No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months	13.7
No, and we have no plans to do so in the near future	47.1
Don’t know	5.9

NOTES: 51 responses.

2. How is your firm using or planning to use AI? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
Marketing/advertising	56.5
Customer service	52.2
Business analysis/predictive analytics	47.8
Supply-chain optimization	26.1
Process automation	17.4
Accounting	17.4
Cybersecurity/fraud detection	17.4
Quality control	4.3
Other	4.3

NOTES: 23 responses. This question was only posed to respondents who said in question 1 they currently use AI or are planning to use it in the next 12 months.

3. On net, how has the use of AI affected employment at your firm, or how do you expect it to?

	April '24 (percent)
	Firms using AI	Firms planning to use AI	Combined
Increase(d) our need for workers	0.0	33.3	8.7
Decrease(d) our need for workers	0.0	0.0	0.0
Change(d) the type of workers we need but not the number	11.8	0.0	8.7
Did not/will not impact our need for workers	76.5	33.3	65.2
Don’t know	11.8	33.3	17.4
Number of responses	17	6	23

3a. Please indicate the change (or expected change) in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI.

Firms using AI	April '24
	Increased (percent)	Decreased (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	50.0	0.0	50.0	0.0
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	50.0	0.0	50.0	0.0

Firms planning to use AI	April '24
	Increase (percent)	Decrease (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	0.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	50.0	0.0	50.0	0.0
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Combined	April '24
	Increase(d) (percent)	Decrease(d) (percent)	No change (percent)	Don’t know (percent)
Low-skill positions (typically require high school diploma or less and minimal work experience)	0.0	75.0	25.0	0.0
Mid-skill positions (typically require some college or technical training)	50.0	0.0	50.0	0.0
High-skill positions (typically require college degree or higher)	75.0	0.0	25.0	0.0

NOTES: 4 responses. This question was only posed to respondents selecting one of the first three answer choices in question 3. Respondents selecting any version of "Yes" in question 1 were asked to indicate the change in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI. Respondents selecting, "No, but planning to do so in the next 12 months" in question 1 were asked to indicate the expected change in employment/workers by skill level due to the use of AI. Results are displayed separately as well as combined.

4. What benefits has your firm experienced or does your firm expect to experience from using AI? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
	Firms using AI	Firms planning to use AI	Combined
Increase(d) productivity	50.0	50.0	50.0
Access to better and/or more timely information	50.0	50.0	50.0
Improvement in customer relationships	37.5	50.0	40.9
Reduction in costs	31.3	16.7	27.3
Increase(d) revenue/sales	25.0	0.0	18.2
Other	12.5	0.0	9.1
Number of responses	16	6	22

5. What concerns do you have regarding the use of AI, if any? Please select all that apply.

	April '24 (percent)
Misinformation	58.0
Privacy	42.0
Social surveillance and/or manipulation	32.0
Bias and/or discrimination	18.0
Difficulty hiring workers with AI skills	16.0
Workforce reduction/layoffs	6.0
Other	4.0
No concerns	22.0

NOTES: 50 responses.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Food manufacturing

We are using AI [artificial intelligence] to improve processes and reduce non-value-added work in our business. We believe there is strong potential for AI to automate or eliminate many clerical jobs in our business, which will save our team time and money. We are primarily focused on using traditional AI over generative AI, as we believe that this has the most direct and positive impact on our business. We are dabbling in generative AI for marketing and other sales-related work.

Textile product mills

We are a small business and would like to use AI to automate processes but don't have the labor, time or expertise right now to do it.

Printing and related support activities

We are not sure at all how or if AI will affect our manufacturing business. Time will tell.

Machinery manufacturing

We do believe AI has merit, but how do we implement? How do we establish guardrails to keep us out of the ditch? How do we build confidence in the concept? Those are big questions and tall challenges for smaller firms, which are not easily answered.

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

We use generative AI to write more creative help-wanted ads and other online content. We would not use generative AI in any kind of mission-critical application due to real concern about accuracy, traceability and data security.
AI is in its infancy. Many systems do not have additional AI capabilities yet that impact business. However, third-party tools used to analyze [information] are having a positive impact already. The future will be the adoption based on new understanding of proper tool sets.

Transportation equipment manufacturing

AI is more challenging to implement than anticipated, and the impact is currently lower than expected.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Publishing industries (except internet)

Reduced access to capital will accelerate adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation as companies look to cut costs to drive financial performance given slower growth environment. As companies shift to profitability as the primary metric of financial health versus revenue, AI could be seen as a timely cost and head count reduction tool. We anticipate the increased interest rate environment accelerating the adoption of AI to the detriment of non-cognitive-routine workers as well as cognitive-routine workers.

Credit intermediation and related activities

AI might be good for translation or first drafts.
AI is still a new product that is still not completely vetted for security and safe utilization.

Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments and related activities

We think it is too early in the maturation of AI to be evaluating impacts on employment or productivity, but generally we believe it will increase productivity. The impact on employment will likely be on repetitive tasks.

Real estate

If your job involves sitting behind a screen all day, AI is coming for you. Those with manual skills and abilities will again become the most valuable workers. As decision-making becomes automated and optimized, people won't benefit as much from greater education.

Professional, scientific and technical services

We've actively pursued AI in our business to our benefit and our clients’ benefit. The positive impact on our workflows and our productivity has been marked. This has enabled us to take on other projects to move the business forward. In turn, we've been creating the same impact in our clients as well.
AI makes it challenging to discern candidates’ true skill levels and fitness for the positions we have. Anyone can generate expert cover letters, profiles and resumes based on key words rather than true experience and skill sets.
High inflation may force us to explore the use of AI and other technologies so that we can save payroll expenses.
We prefer actual intelligence rather than the artificial kind. Also, we are required by law as professional engineers to "directly supervise" and take responsibility for the work done under our seal. In our opinion, very few if any people know what AI uses to make its calculations, decisions, etc. Therefore, how can we directly supervise those decisions?
We are currently training our engineers to be better at the tasks that AI can't replace. That way we will be in front of the curve if AI starts to replace engineers.
We are very concerned about the economy. We are not filling positions, and we are looking at consolidation of offices.

Ambulatory health care services

While there are substantial risks for misinformation, bias, discrimination and privacy concerns in the broader implementation and use of AI generally, the tasks we will be asking (at least initially) are not those that would be particularly prone to those problems.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Motor vehicle and parts dealers

It is too soon to reliably measure AI’s employment impacts and/or other benefits or costs.

Questions regarding the Texas Business Outlook Surveys can be addressed to Emily Kerr at emily.kerr@dal.frb.org.