A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast, June 22
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.
June 22, 2026
The Interest Rate Effect of Government Debt and Deficits: Does Domestic Borrowing Have a Different Impact Than Foreign Borrowing?
This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and interest rates in advanced economies.
June 22, 2026
El Paso border leaders seek clarity ahead of investment
On her most recent Listening in 360 visit to El Paso, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan focused on learning about the state of the border economy and meeting with business and community leaders in both El Paso and Juarez, Mexico.
June 17, 2026
Austin Economic Indicators, April 2026
In April, Austin experienced employment growth and wage increases, though the unemployment rate also rose. Meanwhile, housing prices climbed as months of inventory declined.
June 10, 2026
Oil prices are up; whither the Texas boom?
Texas tends to report higher employment and output when oil prices sharply increase. But uncertainty regarding the duration of elevated prices could mute such impacts from the price shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
June 5, 2026
Texas Economic Indicators, April 2026
The Texas economy expanded in April. Overall, employment grew and the unemployment rate held steady.
June 5, 2026
Understanding discount window usage: Key drivers and early warning signals
In this study we take a closer look at discount window usage since the Fed began releasing public data with the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010.
June 5, 2026
Opening remarks for moderated conversation at The University of Texas at El Paso
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan shares her views on the economic and monetary policy outlook.
June 3, 2026