A comprehensive list of recently added postings on Dallasfed.org.
Welcome remarks for the Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration conference
This conversation comes at a pivotal time as governments adjust trade, immigration and other policies.
April 10, 2025
Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge
In August 2020, the Federal Reserve replaced Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) with Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), introducing make-up strategies that allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target. Using a synthetic control approach, this paper estimates that FAIT raised CPI inflation by about 1 percentage point and core CPI inflation by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a moderate impact net of food and energy and a largely temporary effect. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a steeper-than-expected post-pandemic Phillips curve in the New Keynesian model.
April 9, 2025
El Paso Economic Indicators
Employment in El Paso grew in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged. Meanwhile, year-over-year wage growth in the metro area was faster than the state.
April 7, 2025
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volume and demand growth decelerated sharply in March. Credit tightening continued, but loan pricing declined.
April 7, 2025
San Antonio Economic Indicators
San Antonio payrolls and wages grew in February. Retail sales tax revenue fell sharply after rising in January, and unemployment ticked up.
April 4, 2025
Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.
April 3, 2025
Texas Economic Indicators
The Texas economy expanded in February. Employment growth was solid, and sales tax revenue increased broadly.
April 3, 2025
Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
April 3, 2025
Growth decelerates in Texas service sector as company outlooks worsen
Texas service sector activity stalled in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
April 1, 2025
Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
April 1, 2025